SpaceX is set to commence trading on the Nasdaq shortly, with investors and prediction-market participants increasingly betting that Elon Musk's aerospace company could rapidly surpass a $2 trillion market capitalization on its first day.
The company priced its initial public offering at $135 per share, implying an initial market capitalization of roughly $1.77 trillion. That valuation already places SpaceX among the most valuable publicly traded entities globally from the outset.
Prediction Markets Signal Strong Debut
Activity on prediction market platform Polymarket indicates widespread optimism about SpaceX's first trading session. According to market data, traders assign an 84% probability that SPCX will close its debut day with a valuation above $1.8 trillion. The odds of the company exceeding the $2 trillion threshold stand at 69%.
Based on the IPO valuation of $1.77 trillion, reaching $2 trillion would represent a gain of roughly 13% from the offering price. This bullish sentiment reflects expectations that investor demand will remain robust after trading begins, particularly among retail investors who were unable to secure IPO allocations.
A substantial first-day rally is often viewed as evidence of strong market demand. Corporate executives and investment bankers generally regard a first-day gain of 20% or more as a successful public debut, though larger jumps can also indicate that shares may have been conservatively priced during the offering process.
Derivatives Markets Point to Higher Opening
Additional clues about investor expectations are emerging from alternative trading venues. SpaceX-linked pre-IPO perpetual futures on cryptocurrency exchange Hyperliquid have indicated a significantly higher valuation than the IPO price. Based on recent trading activity, the contracts imply an opening share price of around $175, approximately 30% above the $135 offering price.
More than $200 million worth of SpaceX-linked contracts changed hands over the past 24 hours, according to platform data. During that period, prices climbed from just above $160 to nearly $185 before retreating modestly. The contracts do not represent ownership of actual SpaceX shares; instead, they allow traders to speculate on the company's market value before public trading begins. Once SpaceX starts trading on the Nasdaq, the contracts will transition into crypto-based instruments designed to track the stock's performance.
Market participants have increasingly watched Hyperliquid as a source of price discovery ahead of major IPOs. Although the platform remains officially unavailable to US users due to regulatory restrictions, it has attracted growing attention from Wall Street because of its round-the-clock trading activity.
Derivatives offered by online brokerage IG are also signaling strong demand. According to IG pricing, SpaceX's market capitalization could rise to approximately $2.4 trillion shortly after trading begins. That valuation would imply a share price near $180, 33% higher than the offer price.
SpaceX Eyes Elite $2 Trillion Club
Even a modest first-day gain could place SpaceX among an exclusive group of American companies valued at more than $2 trillion. Currently, only five US companies have crossed that threshold: Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon. A valuation above $2 trillion would also place SpaceX ahead of Broadcom, which currently carries a market value of about $1.85 trillion.
Even at its IPO valuation of $1.77 trillion, SpaceX enters public markets larger than Musk's electric vehicle maker Tesla, whose market capitalization stood at roughly $1.72 trillion late Thursday. For context on how SpaceX's debut is affecting other space-related stocks, see our analysis on how SPCX's opening at $150 impacted RKLB, SPCE, LUNR, and SATS.
While traders appear confident that the stock will enjoy a strong debut, Friday's opening session will provide the first real test of whether investor enthusiasm can justify one of the largest and most closely watched IPOs in market history. For a broader perspective on valuation, compare SpaceX's hype-driven debut with more disciplined plays like Nokia as an AI infrastructure investment.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
