Nio's stock has slipped below a crucial technical support level, hitting its lowest point since July 2025. The shares have tumbled 45% from last year's peak and are down 38% from the year-to-date high. This decline sets the stage for a pivotal moment as investors await the company's financial results on September 1.
Technical breakdown signals further weakness
The daily chart reveals a persistent downtrend, with the stock sliding from an April high of $7 to the current $4.36. The breach of the $4.45 support—a level that held in February and March—indicates that bearish momentum has taken control. Additionally, the price has fallen below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4.92, and the bull/bear power indicator has been negative since August 3.
A head-and-shoulders pattern, a classic bearish reversal formation, has also emerged. This suggests the stock could target the next support at $4.00, with a break below that potentially opening the door to $3.50.
Strong growth continues despite market headwinds
Despite the stock's slide, Nio's operational performance remains robust. July deliveries reached 35,934 vehicles, a 71% year-over-year increase. Year-to-date deliveries stand at 227,057, up 68% from the same period last year. This growth contrasts with some competitors: BYD delivered 419,211 vehicles (up 21% YoY), while XPeng saw a 5.23% decline to 38,027 units, and Li Auto sold 30,468 vehicles, slightly below last year's figure.
Analysts project Nio's second-quarter revenue to rise 75% to 33.2 billion yuan, with third-quarter revenue expected at 36.3 billion yuan, up 66% YoY. The company is also making progress toward profitability, having posted a $40 million profit in Q4 before slipping back into a loss in Q1. Full-year EPS estimates for next year stand at 1.17 yuan.
Opportunities and risks ahead
Nio's newly launched models are gaining traction, with the flagship ES9 surpassing 20,000 sales in under 80 days—a notable achievement for a vehicle priced above $80,000. International expansion also presents a growth avenue, as demand for Chinese vehicles abroad continues to rise.
However, intensifying competition from BYD, Li Auto, and XPeng remains a key risk. Despite the bearish technical outlook, analysts remain optimistic: Goldman Sachs has raised its price target to $7, and Bank of America has set a target of $6.80.
As the September 1 earnings date approaches, traders will closely watch whether the company's financial performance can reverse the technical damage. For context, similar situations have played out in other stocks, such as CrowdStrike's pivotal support test and Celestica's slide toward key levels.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
