Shares of Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) climbed more than 12% on Thursday, tracking a sharp rebound in Bitcoin, which reclaimed the $80,000 level. The move underscores the company's continued role as a leveraged play on the cryptocurrency, given its substantial holdings.
The broader market also advanced, with the Nasdaq Composite up 1.5% and the S&P 500 gaining 0.81%. However, the rally in MSTR came amid divergent Wall Street views, as one brokerage trimmed its price target while another raised it.
Bitcoin's strength underpins MSTR's rally
Bernstein analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, reduced their price target on Strategy to $350 from $450, while maintaining an Outperform rating. The revision reflects an updated Bitcoin cycle timeline and faster-than-expected equity dilution from share sales. Despite the cut, the firm remains bullish on Bitcoin's long-term trajectory, projecting the cryptocurrency to reach $150,000 by mid-2027 and roughly $300,000 at the peak of the next cycle in 2029. In a bull-case scenario, Bernstein sees Bitcoin hitting $500,000 by 2029.
The analysts argue that rising sovereign debt and higher interest expenses could pressure governments, potentially encouraging currency debasement. Such a backdrop, they contend, could benefit scarce assets like Bitcoin. They also point to broader adoption drivers, including institutional and retail access, spot Bitcoin ETFs, and corporate treasury purchases, which support Bitcoin's role as a potential hard asset.
Strategy's Bitcoin stash and balance sheet
Strategy currently holds 840,447 Bitcoin, representing approximately 4% of the total supply. Bernstein noted that the company's strengthened balance sheet provides about 3.9 years of cash coverage for annual interest and preferred dividend obligations. The analysts added that continued Bitcoin strength and a recovery in Strategy's STRC preferred stock toward $100 could enable the company to resume more aggressive Bitcoin purchases.
The broader market has shown renewed interest in assets tied to the so-called debasement trade. Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas observed that the "debasement trade is starting to replace AI mania," noting that BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) had returned to the top 10 most-traded ETFs.
Bernstein also highlighted that about 59% of Bitcoin's supply had not moved over the past 12 months. The cryptocurrency gained 28% over the last 10 days, following a roughly 50% decline from its October 2025 peak.
Canaccord raises target, technicals show overbought
In contrast to Bernstein, Canaccord analyst Joseph Vafi raised his price target on Strategy to $175 from $130, maintaining a Buy rating. Canaccord said the setup for Strategy shares had improved over recent weeks as company-specific and macroeconomic factors converged.
Technically, MSTR is trading above its 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages but remains below its 200-day average. The relative strength index stands at 73.26, placing the stock in overbought territory. The shares are still 2.2% below their 200-day moving average of $141.60, which could serve as a key resistance level. The broader trend is recovering from a death cross recorded in October 2025, and the stock remains down 59.5% over the past 12 months.
Investors have also been watching Strategy's cash management moves. The company recently raised $333 million via a share sale while maintaining its Bitcoin holdings, and it has paused Bitcoin purchases for several weeks, building a cash reserve of $3.75 billion. These actions have been seen as prudent liquidity measures.
As Bitcoin's price action continues to drive sentiment, MSTR's performance remains closely tied to the cryptocurrency's trajectory. The divergent analyst targets reflect uncertainty about the pace of Bitcoin adoption and the impact of dilution on shareholder value.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
