Ethereum has staged a modest recovery from its recent lows, climbing approximately 10% since the start of the month after finding support near the $1,700 level. However, the rebound has been characterized by weak buying activity, leaving the broader trend uncertain and bulls on edge.
On-Chain Metrics Show Improvement but Caution Persists
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator for Ethereum has improved from -0.46 to -0.30, suggesting that recent price gains have reduced paper losses for many holders. Despite this improvement, the metric remains negative, indicating that the average investor is still holding ETH at a loss. A sustained rally backed by strong buying volume would be needed to push NUPL into positive territory, signaling a return to profitability for a larger portion of the market.
Large Ethereum holders, or whales, have shown renewed interest over the past week. Wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH accumulated approximately 100,000 ETH during this period. However, whale balances have remained relatively unchanged over the past three weeks, suggesting that accumulation has been measured rather than aggressive.
Retail participation continues to lag. Addresses holding between 100–1,000 ETH and 1,000–10,000 ETH recorded only minimal changes in their balances, indicating that smaller investors have largely stayed on the sidelines despite Ethereum's recent recovery.
Institutional Demand Shows Signs of Life
Institutional demand has also shown signs of improvement. According to CoinGlass data, US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded four consecutive trading days of net inflows, marking the longest positive streak since early May. The combined inflows totaled approximately $91.5 million. While the return of positive ETF flows is encouraging, the amount remains relatively modest and has not been sufficient to drive a significant upward move in Ethereum's price.
Another indicator pointing to cautious market sentiment is the Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks buying activity among US-based investors. The metric has recovered from -0.169 to -0.076, suggesting demand has improved compared with previous weeks. However, the index remains below zero, indicating buying pressure is still weaker than normal. Historically, Ethereum has tended to experience stronger rallies when both the Coinbase Premium Index and spot ETF inflows remain elevated for extended periods.
Derivatives Market Reflects Cautious Outlook
Activity in Ethereum's derivatives market also reflects a cautious outlook. Open interest has remained largely unchanged over the past week, suggesting leveraged traders are waiting for stronger confirmation before increasing their market exposure. The lack of fresh capital entering derivatives markets indicates that recent price gains have yet to convince traders that a sustained bullish trend is underway.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum remains bearish as it continues to face resistance after failing to reclaim key moving averages. The cryptocurrency remains below both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,803 and the 100-day EMA at $1,965. However, ETH defended the 20-day EMA near $1,714 on Wednesday, and it now serves as immediate support.
Momentum indicators suggest buying pressure is beginning to weaken. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is drifting toward the neutral 50 level, while the Stochastic Oscillator has also turned lower, indicating bullish momentum may be fading. If selling pressure increases, traders may watch the first major support level at $1,714. A daily candle close below this level could expose lower demand zones at $1,524, $1,404, and $1,155 (major long-term support).
For Ethereum to extend its recovery, bulls will need to overcome several key resistance areas, the first of which lies at $1,803. Breaking this resistance would allow ETH to extend its rally towards $1,965 (100-day EMA), with another supply zone above the $2,000 psychological level. For more on Ethereum's recent price action, see Ethereum's 10% Rally Faces $1,800 Resistance: Can Bulls Break Through? and Ethereum Targets $2,000 as Record $1.2B Exchange Outflows Signal Accumulation.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
