CoreWeave (CRWV) shares rallied approximately 10% on Tuesday, driven by analyst commentary that uncovered potential for a significant backlog beat in the second quarter. The move follows a review of the company's latest bond-offering memorandum, which revealed internal metrics suggesting stronger-than-expected contract growth.
Bond Filing Hints at Accelerating Backlog
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brett Knoblauch noted that equity investors may have overlooked key data points in CoreWeave's recent bond-offering memorandum. The filing disclosed a run-rate EBITDA of $18.758 billion, up from $16.098 billion in an April offering document. Using these figures, Knoblauch estimates the company's backlog could have reached approximately $125 billion by early June, with the memorandum covering only about 80% of the current quarter.
If contract additions continue at a similar pace, the analyst projects backlog could exceed $131 billion by June 30. That would represent a substantial increase from the reported first-quarter backlog of $99.4 billion and surpass the Wall Street consensus estimate of $104.4 billion. "As such, we get the sense that CoreWeave could be gearing up for a sizable beat when it comes to backlog," Knoblauch wrote.
Analysts See Long-Term Value Despite Debt
The bond filing also provided insight into CoreWeave's balance sheet, with gross debt potentially reaching $68.5 billion and net debt totaling $58.3 billion as the company invests to meet customer demand. Despite these elevated debt levels, Knoblauch argued that the market is "woefully undervaluing" neocloud companies and maintained an Overweight rating with a $167 price target.
Other analysts have turned increasingly bullish. Last week, Macquarie upgraded CoreWeave to Outperform from Neutral and raised its price target to $125 from $90, citing partnerships with major technology firms such as Meta Platforms and OpenAI. The firm believes CoreWeave is positioned to "increasingly become a structural player into the next decade."
For context on broader market movements, see our coverage of AMD Drops 6% Amid Chip Selloff, Yet Analysts Raise Targets on AI Demand and Microsoft Stock Gains 2% as Evercore Lifts Target, Analysts Eye AI Capex.
Options Activity and Nasdaq Inclusion Add Momentum
Investor enthusiasm has also been reflected in the options market, with traders purchasing call options ahead of the June 26 expiration date, anticipating further upside following the latest analyst commentary. Supporters point to CoreWeave's rapid revenue growth, expanding gross margins, and sizable multiyear backlog as indicators of long-term potential.
However, risks remain. CoreWeave continues to fund much of its expansion through debt and significant cash spending. While analysts see potential for strong profitability over time, investors remain focused on whether management can convert growing EBITDA into sustainable free cash flow and reduce dependence on external financing.
The stock may receive another boost later this month when it joins the Nasdaq 100 Index. CoreWeave is scheduled to be added alongside Nebius Group, Rocket Lab, Astera Labs, and Teradyne as part of the index's quarterly rebalance, which takes effect before the market opens on June 22.
For a look at other notable analyst calls, see UnitedHealth Jumps 6% on Q2 Beat, Raises 2026 EPS Forecast to $19.50-$20 and Tesla Stock Inches Up as Analysts Boost Price Targets Ahead of Q2 Earnings.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
