Bitcoin's price has climbed roughly 1% over the past day to around $78,700, yet it continues to face stiff resistance below the $80,000 mark. Despite renewed institutional interest, a dense supply zone and profit-taking have kept the cryptocurrency rangebound.
Strategy resumes buying, but entry price sits above market
Strategy's latest SEC filing revealed a purchase of 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million between Aug. 24 and Aug. 30, bringing its total holdings to 845,050 BTC. The company paid an average of $80,318 per coin, which is above Bitcoin's current market price. This marked Strategy's first acquisition in about ten weeks, re-entering the market after a pause. Its entire Bitcoin position was acquired for $63.73 billion at an average of $75,412 per BTC.
Despite this buying, Bitcoin has struggled to convert demand into a sustained move above $80,000. During August's recovery, BTC briefly touched $81,455, but repeated attempts to hold above $80,000 have been met with selling, leaving the price back near $78,700 as of Sept. 1.
ETF inflows and exchange outflows provide support
Institutional demand had been a key support factor. According to Glassnode, US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $2.8 billion during eight consecutive sessions in August, while Bitcoin also moved off exchanges as various wallet sizes accumulated. However, ETF demand weakened late in the month, with net outflows of $201.9 million on Aug. 28, ending a nine-session streak that had brought in $3.04 billion.
The supply overhang above $80,000 helps explain why these inflows have not triggered a breakout. Glassnode identified a concentration of overhead structures between $81,000 and $86,000, including long-term holders near their cost basis and a heavy pocket of self-custodied coins starting around $80,800. Options positioning adds further resistance, with dealer hedging shifts around $82,300 and short liquidation levels clustered between $82,000 and $86,000. A sustained move above $83,300, backed by continued ETF inflows, would signal that buyers are absorbing the supply.
Leverage and momentum cool
Leverage has also declined. Futures open interest dropped 11% in Bitcoin terms during the August short squeeze, while perpetual funding remained largely neutral, according to Glassnode. Fresh leveraged longs did not replace the positions removed during the squeeze, indicating a more cautious market.
Bitcoin enters September after gaining roughly 24% over the past 30 days, leaving many traders with sizable profits. Historically, September has been a weak month for Bitcoin, though past performance is not a reliable guide.
Macro headwinds intensify
Macroeconomic pressures have made breaking $80,000 harder. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech shifted market expectations toward another rate increase, with traders pricing in a more than 65% probability of a September hike, as reported by Reuters. Warsh warned that policymakers would act if inflation did not move toward the Fed's 2% target. Barclays subsequently revised its forecast to two more 25-basis-point hikes this year, one in September and another in December, after previously expecting no further hikes in 2026.
Oil prices have added to inflation concerns as US-Iran tensions pushed crude higher, while Treasury yields rose after Warsh's comments. Bitcoin fell below $78,000 following the speech as the two-year Treasury yield climbed 12 basis points to 4.35%. Upcoming US employment figures and the August CPI report, due Sept. 11, will provide further clues before the Fed's Sept. 16 decision.
Technical outlook: support holds, but momentum fades
On the daily chart, Bitcoin remains above key moving averages: the 20-day EMA at $74,475, the 200-day EMA at $72,294, the 50-day EMA at $70,027, and the 100-day EMA at $69,053. The 20-day EMA has turned sharply higher, providing dynamic support. A pullback toward $74,500 could be absorbed without breaking the structure from the $63,000-$65,000 area. A decline through the 20-day EMA would put the 200-day EMA in focus, followed by the $69,000-$70,000 region where the 50-day and 100-day averages cluster.
The daily RSI has fallen to 71.07 from above 80 during the August surge, while its moving average sits at 77.05. This indicates that momentum has eased, though Bitcoin remains marginally overbought. A drop below 70 in the RSI while price stays under $80,000 would suggest more consolidation. Conversely, holding near 70 while clearing recent highs would allow momentum to rebuild without extreme readings.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin trades above the Bollinger Band midpoint at $78,216 and below the upper band at $79,089, with the lower band at $77,343. The bands have contracted, signaling reduced volatility and a potential buildup for a directional move.
For context on broader market trends, see our analysis on Solana's recent rally and Figma's breakout.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
