Bitcoin has rebounded above $61,000 following weaker-than-expected US employment data, which has reignited speculation that the Federal Reserve may be compelled to ease monetary policy later this year. The recovery from Wednesday's low near $57,750 was triggered by the US Labor Department's report that nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, far below the 113,000 economists had anticipated. Additionally, April and May payroll figures were revised downward by a combined 74,000 jobs, amplifying concerns about a slowing labor market.
The softer economic data prompted a reassessment of interest rate expectations. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut by September dropped to 54% from 64% a day earlier. Gold also advanced following the report, while West Texas Intermediate crude remained below $70 amid positive signals from US-Iranian talks, easing supply worries. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet held steady at $6.7 trillion, though market participants increasingly link softer employment and easing inflation to potential additional liquidity support—conditions that have historically benefited scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold.
AI Stock Weakness Adds to Recovery Narrative
The rebound in Bitcoin coincided with pressure across artificial intelligence-related equities. Shares of SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital, and Applied Materials each fell more than 9% during Thursday's session, reviving discussions about capital rotation away from overheated technology names. This shift may further support Bitcoin's recovery narrative as investors seek alternative stores of value.
Separately, CryptoQuant contributor gaah_im reported that Bitcoin's realized profit-to-loss ratio has fallen to its lowest level since 2022. The percentage of Bitcoin supply currently in profit relative to total circulating supply has turned negative, a condition that has historically coincided with market bottoms. The analyst noted that similar readings have identified cycle lows with high accuracy, though they do not guarantee future price performance.
Part of Bitcoin's earlier weakness also stemmed from investor reaction to Strategy's financing activities. Despite maintaining a net leverage of around 8% and an enterprise value of roughly $56.8 billion, shareholders have expressed concerns over accelerated MSTR share issuance used to refinance debt and fund preferred stock dividend obligations.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Bitcoin traded around $61,400 at the time of writing, recovering from the previous day's sharp decline. The latest rally lifted the cryptocurrency above both its 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) near $60,470 and 50-period EMA around $60,571 on the 4-hour chart. These moving averages now form the first layer of technical support should prices retreat.
The recovery has stalled directly beneath the 100 EMA near $61,626, which continues to act as immediate resistance. The 200 EMA around $64,141 remains well above the current market price, indicating that the medium-term trend has yet to turn decisively bullish despite the recent rebound. Momentum indicators also suggest traders may be approaching an important short-term decision point. The 4-hour Stochastic RSI has climbed above 90 and entered overbought territory, indicating buying momentum has strengthened considerably. However, with both oscillator lines beginning to flatten, the indicator also points to the possibility of consolidation or a temporary pullback before another attempt higher.
On the 24-hour BTC liquidation heatmap, the largest concentration of leveraged positions sits between $60,400 and $60,700, creating a sizeable liquidity pocket below current prices. Above the market, smaller but notable liquidation clusters appear around $61,900 to $62,000, followed by another concentration near $62,400 to $62,600. Taken together, the technical and liquidation data suggest Bitcoin is trading between two significant liquidity zones. A sustained move above the 100 EMA could expose the $62,000-$62,600 region, where liquidation pressure may accelerate price movement if short positions are forced to close. Meanwhile, failure to hold above the 20 and 50 EMA cluster could see price revisit the $60,400-$60,700 support area, where a dense concentration of leveraged long positions currently exists.
For broader market context, see our analysis on S&P 500 Reversal Risk: VOO ETF Technicals Flash Warning Signs and Nvidia Signals Robotics as AI's Next Frontier: Industrial Suppliers May Lead.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
