Bitcoin is trading around $64,210 on Wednesday, holding steady after a modest 1% gain on Tuesday. The cryptocurrency remains slightly below its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $64,376, as investors weigh renewed institutional demand against broader macroeconomic uncertainties.
ETF inflows provide support
Data from CoinGlass shows US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $189.30 million in net inflows on Tuesday, marking the second consecutive day of positive flows. This renewed institutional interest has helped underpin Bitcoin's recent recovery, following a period of subdued activity.
Continued ETF inflows could add buying pressure and support further upside. Conversely, a return to sustained outflows would weaken institutional support and leave BTC more exposed to shifts in market sentiment.
FOMC minutes and oil tensions in focus
Investors are now awaiting the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes later Wednesday. The report may offer clues about the Fed's interest-rate trajectory, especially as rising energy prices revive inflation concerns.
At its last meeting, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate in a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, but three voting officials dissented in favor of a hike, signaling internal disagreement. A hawkish tone in the minutes could lift Treasury yields and the US dollar, pressuring Bitcoin and other risk assets. A more balanced or dovish message, however, could support crypto valuations by improving liquidity expectations.
Adding to the uncertainty, crude oil prices climbed to a nearly three-week high amid ongoing tensions between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump stated that Washington is not negotiating with Tehran and that the naval blockade remains in place, while Iranian officials have threatened to keep the waterway closed unless certain conditions are met. Higher energy costs could feed into broader inflation, complicating the Fed's ability to ease policy.
Technical outlook: key levels to watch
Bitcoin's technical structure remains capped. The 50-day EMA at $64,376 is immediate support, while the 100-day EMA at $66,334 and the 200-day EMA at $71,451 represent overhead resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 56, indicating neutral momentum with a slight bullish tilt, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is positive, suggesting improving buying momentum.
First significant resistance is at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $65,547, derived from the May 26 high of $78,080 to the July 1 low of $57,800. Above that, the 100-day EMA at $66,334 and horizontal resistance at $66,500 could pose challenges. A sustained daily close above $66,500 would strengthen the bullish case, potentially opening the door to the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $67,940.
On the downside, a daily close below the 50-day EMA at $64,376 would weaken the short-term outlook. Support then lies at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of $62,586, followed by horizontal support at $62,300.
Bitcoin's next directional move may hinge on whether ETF inflows persist and how markets interpret the Fed's policy message. For related context, see our coverage of Bitcoin holding $65K as ETF inflows fail to break resistance and Solana ETF inflows hitting a seven-week streak.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
