Bitcoin traded slightly higher on Thursday, in line with the broader crypto market, even as US equities hovered near record levels and investors awaited the Federal Reserve's September meeting. The leading cryptocurrency gained about 0.22% over the past 24 hours to trade near $64,684, while the CoinMarketCap 20 Index rose 0.33%.
The move came as the S&P 500 remained little changed after recent all-time highs. Market participants also tracked developments regarding a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which could influence oil prices and risk sentiment.
Bitcoin lags equities despite high correlation
Despite the daily gain, Bitcoin's longer-term performance continues to trail US stocks. Thahbib Rahman, Research Analyst at Block Scholes, noted that while equities are setting records, Bitcoin remains well below its own peak. Since the start of 2025, the S&P 500 has returned more than 25%, while Bitcoin is down nearly 35%, with the gap widening during the latest equity rally.
However, Rahman pointed out that this divergence does not signal a breakdown in Bitcoin's relationship with traditional risk assets. The rolling 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 remains historically elevated at around 45%. Instead, Bitcoin has simply participated less in rallies and declined more sharply during downturns.
Futures positioning turns more constructive
Derivatives data revealed improving sentiment beneath the surface. The long-short taker volume ratio turned bullish for the first time in at least a week, with long positions accounting for nearly 61% of market orders. Bitcoin futures open interest also increased to around 759,000 BTC, though analysts noted that similar increases since early June have been short-lived, with open interest repeatedly falling back toward 740,000 BTC.
In the options market, traders increasingly accumulated bullish call options at significantly higher strike prices. Among the most actively traded contracts on Deribit were Bitcoin calls at $80,000 and $96,000, indicating growing interest in upside scenarios.
XRP weakens as Ethereum and Solana remain subdued
Performance across the broader crypto market was mixed. XRP fell 1.8% in the last 24 hours, with open interest climbing 1.7% to 2.35 billion tokens while the price dropped to around $1.04, its lowest level since early July. Ethereum gained 1.5%, with open interest rising 0.53% to $26.77 billion. Solana continued to unwind leverage, with futures open interest declining for another consecutive day to 61.31 million tokens, down from over 76.5 million in late June.
Monetary policy and seasonality to keep volatility muted
The Block Scholes analyst also highlighted monetary policy expectations as a headwind for digital assets. Although the Federal Reserve refrained from raising rates at its latest meeting, markets still price in roughly a 65% probability of a 25-basis-point hike in September. Rahman noted that the relief from the Fed's decision not to hike was muted, and seasonal patterns could keep volatility subdued ahead of the next FOMC meeting. Uncertainty around this year's Jackson Hole symposium is greater because Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has expressed reluctance to provide forward guidance.
For context, other markets have seen notable moves recently. For instance, Duolingo shares slid 15% on a weak Q3 outlook, while Datadog stock plunged 18% despite a Q2 beat. In the crypto space, BNB eyes a $603 breakout as derivatives data turns bullish. Meanwhile, Dow futures climbed 195 points on Middle East hopes.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
