Anthropic, the developer of the Claude AI models, is reportedly targeting a valuation of $2 trillion or more for its potential October initial public offering, according to the Financial Times. If realized, that would surpass SpaceX's recent IPO valuation and mark the largest public debut in history. But while the headline number is staggering, the underlying risks are equally outsized.
Revenue growth underpins the $2T target
Backers of Anthropic argue that the company's revenue trajectory justifies the lofty valuation. The company's annualized revenue—a run-rate measure that extrapolates recent sales over a full year—surpassed $47 billion in May, according to company announcements. Investors expect that figure to reach $100 billion to $120 billion by the end of 2026, representing a more than tenfold increase over the course of next year.
One investor told the FT that if Anthropic is growing at 800% annually, even a conservative 30 times revenue multiple would imply a $3 trillion valuation. However, the company lacks a directly comparable publicly listed U.S. peer, making benchmarking difficult. AI-related names like Palantir and Nebius have traded at roughly 55 times revenue this year, but those are established businesses with different risk profiles.
Competition and price sensitivity loom large
Anthropic faces intensifying competition from Chinese developers offering open-weight models at a fraction of the cost of leading U.S. systems. According to Artificial Analysis, Anthropic's top-tier model costs more than two and a half times as much to use as OpenAI's flagship model. As businesses become more price-sensitive, some have already scaled back their AI usage or switched to cheaper alternatives.
Data from payments company Ramp shows that Anthropic actually gained market share among U.S. businesses last month, but analysts noted that companies are "hitting their limit on AI spend" and increasingly turning to lower-cost options. This creates a tension: Anthropic's premium models may drive adoption, but their high cost could slow the revenue growth that investors are banking on.
Regulatory and government friction
The company's relationship with the U.S. government adds another layer of uncertainty. Anthropic has clashed with the Trump administration and is involved in litigation with the Department of Defense, which labeled the company a supply-chain risk earlier this year. In June, Commerce Department export controls forced Anthropic to temporarily withdraw its leading Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models, unsettling some customers.
Two investors told the FT that the regulatory dispute contributed to a slowdown in overall revenue growth in June, though the company rebounded and continued growing at an extraordinary pace. Still, these government disputes could become a significant consideration for public market investors if the IPO proceeds as planned.
Investor enthusiasm vs. market reality
Despite the risks, investor confidence remains substantial. Nearly $100 billion has flowed into Anthropic during 2026 from venture capital firms, sovereign wealth funds, and institutional investors. The company's valuation surpassed OpenAI's for the first time in May, reaching $965 billion after its latest funding round. A $2 trillion IPO would represent a dramatic increase from that level in just a few months.
One Anthropic investor, who also backs OpenAI and SpaceX, acknowledged the potential risks but remained bullish. However, the sheer scale of the valuation—and the reliance on projected revenue that has not yet been audited—makes this one of the riskiest bets in the AI boom. As SpaceX's AI revenue projections show, even the most optimistic forecasts can face market skepticism.
For investors considering exposure to AI through public markets, the contrast between Anthropic's potential and its challenges is stark. While analysts see AI growth driving SpaceX, Anthropic's path to profitability is less clear. The company's high model costs and regulatory entanglements could test whether it can justify a valuation that would dwarf every other tech IPO in history.
As the IPO approaches, the market will be watching closely to see if Anthropic can deliver on its revenue promises—and whether the risks that have so far been confined to private markets will spill over into the public sphere. The outcome could set a precedent for how AI companies are valued in the years to come.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
