Ripple's XRP has fallen below the $1.10 threshold, raising concerns that the psychologically important $1.00 support level could be tested next. The decline comes as institutional interest in XRP spot ETFs remains subdued, even as broader market sentiment gets a lift from cooling US inflation data.
Macro tailwinds fail to lift XRP
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped 0.4% month-over-month in June, the largest monthly decline since April 2020. This has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may ease monetary policy, typically a positive catalyst for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
However, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has only edged up to 30 from 24, still firmly in Extreme Fear territory. This suggests that while investors are less pessimistic than before, they have not yet embraced a full risk-on stance.
Retail and institutional demand both soft
Derivatives data points to a pullback in speculative activity. According to CoinGlass, XRP perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) has declined 2.3% in the past 24 hours to $2.4 billion, remaining below the June peak of $2.7 billion.
Institutional demand appears even more tepid. Data from CoinGlass's ETF page shows XRP spot ETFs recorded only $6.8 million in inflows on Thursday, with cumulative net inflows standing at $1.5 billion and total net assets around $1 billion. The muted activity indicates that institutional investors are taking a cautious approach despite the improving macroeconomic backdrop.
Technical analysis: key levels in focus
The XRP/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish after the token broke below the $1.10 support. XRP is trading below its 50-day EMA ($1.16), 100-day EMA ($1.25), and 200-day EMA ($1.46), all of which now act as resistance levels reinforcing the downtrend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 52, indicating neutral momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, hinting at a potential early recovery, but the signal remains weak and has not confirmed a sustained bullish reversal.
On the upside, the first resistance is the 50-day EMA at $1.16. A decisive break above that could open the door to the 100-day EMA at $1.25, with the 200-day EMA at $1.46 and a descending trendline near $1.55 representing longer-term barriers.
On the downside, $1.10 remains the immediate support. A breakdown below this level could accelerate selling toward the next demand zone near $1.03, with the $1.00 round number acting as a critical psychological floor.
For context on broader market dynamics, see our coverage of the US dollar's safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and OKB's recent decline as the crypto sell-off intensifies.
XRP's near-term direction will likely hinge on whether improving macroeconomic sentiment can translate into stronger retail participation and renewed institutional inflows. Until then, the $1.00 support remains under threat.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
