XRP is trading around $1.13, up 2% in the last 24 hours, after successfully defending the $1.10 support zone. The move comes amid a broader market pullback that has left XRP down 21.6% over the past month and nearly 49% lower year-over-year. The question for investors is whether this rebound marks the start of a sustainable recovery or merely a temporary bounce within a longer downtrend.
Short-Term Technical Structure Tightens
On the 15-minute chart, XRP price action has compressed around the 60-period exponential moving average, with candles repeatedly testing and holding above that level. This type of consolidation often signals stabilizing momentum after a directional move. Order flow data shows a tilt toward buyers, with 56.8% buyer dominance in recent sessions, though such readings can shift quickly.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 30, just above the oversold threshold. If XRP remains above the $1.12–$1.14 range, the short-term structure stays intact. A breakdown below $1.10 would expose the next support zone between $1.04 and $1.09, where buyers previously stepped in during prior declines.
Network Activity and Utility Expansion Support Rebound Narrative
Ripple recently expanded its partnership with Bitso, a major Latin American exchange, to support the issuance of a regulated Mexican peso stablecoin (MXNB) on the XRP Ledger. This stablecoin will integrate into Ripple’s Payments on DEX infrastructure, adding a new layer of real-world utility for cross-border settlement in regulated corridors.
On-chain activity has also recovered. XRP Ledger daily transaction volume climbed back above 1 million, after slowing earlier in the month. This suggests increased network utilization beyond speculative trading. However, sentiment data from Santiment shows XRP sentiment has fallen to its lowest level since October 2025. Historically, such extreme pessimism has sometimes preceded recovery phases, though it does not guarantee a sustained reversal.
Whale Distribution Clashes with Technical Signals
While short-term technical indicators show early recovery signals, large-holder behavior tells a different story. Analyst Ali Martinez noted that the TD Sequential indicator printed a buy signal on the 3-day chart, suggesting potential exhaustion of selling pressure. However, whale activity has weakened significantly: transactions above $1 million dropped from 157 to 67 within nine days, a 57.3% decline. Santiment data also shows that approximately 60 million XRP has been sold or redistributed by whale wallets over the past week.
This divergence between technical signals and whale distribution creates an uneven market structure. While indicators point to a possible short-term rebound, ongoing supply pressure from large holders could limit sustained upside. For context, similar patterns have played out in other assets; for example, Stellar's recent golden cross highlighted the importance of on-chain activity versus whale moves.
Investors should also consider broader market dynamics. The recent surge in oil prices amid geopolitical risks has shifted capital flows, potentially affecting risk assets like XRP. Meanwhile, Ethereum's resilience above $1,900 shows that some crypto assets are finding support despite headwinds.
In summary, XRP's current price action reflects a tug-of-war between improving network fundamentals and persistent selling from large holders. The $1.10–$1.14 zone remains critical for the short-term outlook, while the broader trend will depend on whether utility-driven demand can absorb whale distribution.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
