Bitcoin slipped below the $80,000 mark on Tuesday, even as renewed demand for spot exchange-traded funds provided a potential cushion after three consecutive weeks of losses. The digital asset has been under pressure since early October, with the latest pullback reflecting a mix of technical resistance and macro headwinds.
Data from SoSoValue shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $301.2 million in net inflows last week, snapping a two-week outflow streak. That positive momentum continued on Monday with an additional $110 million in net inflows. Despite these inflows, Bitcoin has fallen 2.7% over the past seven days, indicating that fund demand has not yet been enough to reverse the broader downtrend.
If inflows persist and strengthen, they could help absorb selling pressure. However, ETF flows alone do not guarantee a price recovery, especially when other factors are working against risk assets.
Oil and Geopolitical Tensions Keep Traders Cautious
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments remain a significant obstacle for Bitcoin. West Texas Intermediate crude reached $103.28 per barrel on Friday, its highest level since September 15, amid concerns about supply disruptions and tensions involving Iran. On Sunday, the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen announced they would continue attacks on Saudi Arabia's King Khalid Airport in Riyadh. Stalled negotiations between the United States and Iran have added to the uncertainty.
Sustained increases in energy prices could fuel inflation concerns and dampen demand for risk assets, potentially limiting Bitcoin's upside even as ETF flows improve. The recent oil rally has already stirred inflation fears across markets, with gold slipping below $4,000 as investors reassess the outlook.
Technical Picture: Key Levels to Watch
Bitcoin's weekly chart shows that bullish momentum has weakened. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 54, moving toward the neutral 50 level, indicating fading buying strength. The weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive but its bars are shrinking, suggesting that upward momentum is losing steam during the correction.
On the downside, the weekly chart highlights a Fibonacci retracement level near $78,661, followed by the 50-week Simple Moving Average around $75,817. If Bitcoin recovers, resistance appears near $87,823, with the 100-week SMA at approximately $89,386 as the next barrier.
The daily chart presents a mixed picture. Bitcoin is trading above its 100-day EMA at $77,691 and its 200-day EMA at $76,306, but below the 50-day EMA at $80,816. This places the asset between near-term resistance and longer-term support. The daily RSI at 40 points to weak momentum, while the MACD remains below zero.
A sustained move above the 50-day EMA would be an initial sign of improvement, with the next major barrier around $85,000, where previous selling activity could re-emerge. If the decline resumes, the 100-day EMA at $77,691 and the 200-day EMA at $76,306 are the next daily support levels. A daily close below those averages would weaken the technical structure and increase the risk of a deeper correction.
Market Sentiment and Fed Decision in Focus
Analysts are not optimistic about Bitcoin's return to $100,000 before the end of the year. In an email to Invezz, Nick Forster, founder and CEO of Derive.xyz, stated that “the probability of Bitcoin exceeding $90K by Christmas has also dropped, from 35% to 21%. Meanwhile, the implied chance of Bitcoin falling below $70K has increased from 11% to 17%, a rise of more than 50%.”
All eyes are now on Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision. Fed funds futures were pricing approximately a 90% probability of rates being left unchanged on October 28, with a December rate hike priced at around 76%. The outcome could influence risk sentiment across markets, including cryptocurrencies.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
