Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) edged lower in early trading Wednesday, falling 1.6% to $398.66, even as analysts raised second-quarter delivery estimates and new data from Europe highlighted growing adoption of the company's Full Self-Driving (Supervised) software. The decline underscores a persistent disconnect between near-term operational momentum and longer-term strategic uncertainties that continue to shape investor sentiment.
Analysts See Strong Q2 Deliveries
Wolfe Research projected Tesla is on track to deliver approximately 420,000 vehicles in the second quarter, roughly 10% above the year-ago period and ahead of the current Wall Street consensus of around 400,000 units. Analyst Emmanuel Rosner also forecast automotive gross margins, excluding regulatory credits, in the low-18% range, compared with 17.7% in the first quarter after adjusting for warranty-related items. Earnings per share are expected between $0.50 and $0.52, above the consensus estimate of $0.45.
Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs raised its second-quarter 2026 delivery forecast to 420,000 vehicles from 405,000 previously, adding to the upbeat outlook.
Robotaxi Rollout Remains Key Focus
Despite the constructive near-term data, Wolfe Research argued that vehicle deliveries and automotive profitability represent only a small portion of Tesla's overall valuation. “The much bigger part, in our view, is tied to confidence around their longer-term (and more significant) initiatives across Robotaxi, Humanoids, and ancillary AI services,” Rosner wrote.
Investor attention remains centered on Tesla's ability to execute on its autonomous driving and robotics ambitions. Rosner warned that deployment timelines appear slower than previously expected, particularly in robotaxis. Tesla is likely to miss its first-half deployment targets, and “ramp curves are shallower than previously expected, most notably in robotaxi,” he noted.
Competition is also intensifying. Alphabet-owned Waymo plans to expand into 20 cities this year, Mobileye aims to deploy 100 robotaxis by 2027, and humanoid robot production efforts from Figure AI and Boston Dynamics are accelerating.
Speculation Around Tesla and SpaceX
Rosner also addressed investor speculation about a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX. “TSLA stock has continued to hold up well even as investors gravitate towards SPCX, with the market assuming increasing likelihood of an eventual TSLA/SPCX merger, which provides downside support,” he wrote. However, Wolfe Research believes any such transaction would likely not occur until at least mid-2027.
For more on SpaceX's recent market performance, see SpaceX Stock Dips Below $135 IPO Price Amid Post-Listing Volatility.
European FSD Adoption Expands
Separately, the Dutch road authority reported that 40,000 Tesla vehicles in the Netherlands have begun using the company's Full Self-Driving (Supervised) software since receiving approval earlier this year. Those vehicles have collectively traveled 24 million kilometers without any serious incidents, according to the regulator.
Although Tesla markets the system as Full Self-Driving (Supervised), it remains classified as a driver-assistance system. Drivers are required to keep their attention on the road and be prepared to intervene at any time. “Because of the continuous and strict monitoring of the driver within the vehicle, the driver assistance system is at least as safe as other driver assistance systems,” the agency said in a statement.
The Dutch regulator approved the technology on April 10, following 3,000 hours of testing across tracks and public roads in varying weather conditions. The agency is monitoring the technology on a monthly basis rather than the annual reviews typically conducted for driver-assistance systems. The Dutch approval has also served as the basis for provisional approvals in Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, and Lithuania.
For broader market context, see Tesla Stock Inches Up as Analysts Boost Price Targets Ahead of Q2 Earnings and Tesla Drops 3% as Geopolitical Jitters, AI Milestone Wait Weigh on Stock.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
