Shares of Coinbase Global (COIN) and Circle Internet Group (CRCL) moved higher on Wednesday, buoyed by analyst commentary suggesting that many of the headwinds facing the two crypto-related firms are already reflected in current valuations. William Blair also pointed to the potential for both companies to benefit from any rebound in bitcoin prices.
Circle shares gained more than 3% in midday trading, while Coinbase rose nearly 2%. Bitcoin traded around $64,900, up about 0.5% over the prior 24 hours after hitting an intraday high of $65,500. The cryptocurrency continues to struggle to hold above the $65,000 level.
William Blair Cuts Estimates but Sees Upside
William Blair lowered its financial estimates for Coinbase, but advised investors to remain positioned in the stock, citing a potential bottom in spot trading volumes. The firm noted that both Coinbase and Circle offer what it called “outsized leverage to a bitcoin recovery.”
The brokerage reduced its 2026 revenue estimate for Coinbase by 12% and its 2027 forecast by 13%. EBITDA estimates were cut by 34% for both years. Despite these reductions, William Blair expects profitability to recover after this year, stating that EBITDA “seems set to trough” in the second half of 2026 before rebounding in 2027.
The firm also warned that consensus estimates across the sector are likely to continue declining, and it revised its own forecasts lower accordingly.
Piper Sandler Lowers Price Target
Separately, Piper Sandler lowered its price target on Coinbase to $155 from $170 while maintaining a Neutral rating. Analyst Patrick Moley noted that subdued cryptocurrency trading has contrasted with record options activity and the strongest quarter on record for U.S. cash equities trading volumes.
Moley highlighted that prediction markets and perpetual futures “were the story” of the second quarter, with the FIFA World Cup driving what he described as “massive” growth across the prediction markets industry. He added that investors are closely watching the “perpetual future threat,” as increasing competition shifts trading activity toward newer products such as perpetual futures.
ARK Invest Continues Buying Circle Shares
While analysts updated their outlooks, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest continued to increase its exposure to Circle despite the stock’s recent weakness. ARK purchased another 220,000 Circle shares across three actively managed exchange-traded funds on Tuesday. Based on Circle’s Tuesday closing price of $63.22, the acquisition was valued at approximately $13.9 million.
The latest purchase brings ARK’s disclosed Circle purchases during July to 725,517 shares. The investment firm had previously acquired 287,609 shares on July 1 and 217,896 shares on July 9.
Circle has become a significant holding across ARK’s innovation-focused portfolios. As of Wednesday, the company represented 4.37% of the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF, making it the fund’s seventh-largest position with a value of roughly $33 million. Circle also accounted for 3.35% of the flagship ARK Innovation ETF, ranking as its ninth-largest holding and carrying a value of approximately $218 million.
Despite Wednesday’s gains, both stocks remain under pressure this year. Coinbase shares have fallen nearly 30% in 2026, while Circle stock is down almost 20%.
For broader market context, the Dow climbed 148 points as positive economic data and earnings boosted sentiment. Meanwhile, Tesla stock edged higher ahead of its Q2 earnings report, and AMD dropped 6% amid a chip selloff despite analyst target hikes.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
