SpaceX (SPCX) shares edged higher Monday, tracking a broader market rebound, as investors braced for the company's first quarterly earnings release since its June initial public offering. The stock gained roughly 1% in early trading, though it remains more than 50% below its post-IPO intraday high and has lost over $500 billion in market value since its debut.
The market-wide advance came after President Donald Trump called off planned strikes against Iran, easing geopolitical tensions and pushing oil prices lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 615 points, or 1.1%, while the S&P 500 added 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2%.
First earnings report as a public company
SpaceX is scheduled to report second-quarter results after Tuesday's close, marking its first earnings release since listing on June 12. The stock has fallen for four consecutive weeks, with sentiment weighed down by concerns over valuation, heavy spending, and the impending expiration of post-IPO lock-up restrictions that could unlock additional share sales.
With a market capitalization near $1.4 trillion, SpaceX trades at a trailing price-to-sales ratio in the 70s while still reporting significant losses. Investors are expected to focus less on the quarterly numbers and more on management's long-term outlook for its AI, satellite, and launch businesses.
AI spending and Starlink growth in focus
Analysts polled by LSEG expect SpaceX's AI business to generate $2.33 billion in revenue for the April–June quarter, a sharp acceleration from the prior quarter. Revenue from the Starlink connectivity segment is projected at $3.82 billion, with operating profit forecast to rise to $1.42 billion from $1.19 billion in Q1.
Starlink ended March with 10.3 million subscribers, roughly double the year-ago figure, though average revenue per user declined nearly 25%. The company's AI expansion remains its largest investment area: Q1 AI spending hit $7.72 billion, about three-quarters of total capex. For Q2, total capital expenditure is expected to climb to roughly $14 billion, with AI-related outlays projected to surge more than sixfold year-over-year to approximately $10 billion.
SpaceX has signed AI computing agreements with customers including Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI, but investors will look for evidence that these investments are translating into sustainable growth. The broader tech earnings season has already highlighted the market's sensitivity to AI spending plans, as seen in recent cloud earnings reports.
Bernstein: Execution is key
Ahead of the report, Bernstein reiterated its Outperform rating and $239 price target on SpaceX. The firm said management's confidence in the long-term growth trajectory will matter more than the quarterly results themselves.
Bernstein identified four factors that will determine SpaceX's long-term valuation: achieving rapid Starship reusability, securing sufficient semiconductor capacity, navigating regulatory approvals, and expanding AI computing capacity. The analysts emphasized that full reusability of Starship is the cornerstone of the investment case, with their model assuming roughly 3,600 launches in 2031—a target that would require at least daily launches and significant infrastructure expansion.
SpaceX currently operates two launchpads and is adding two more, while negotiating with state governments over five or six additional facilities, according to Bernstein. The company's progress on these fronts will be closely watched, especially as lock-up expirations loom.
Investors will also be monitoring any commentary on the company's capital allocation and whether it plans to moderate its aggressive spending. The stock's recent slide has been exacerbated by the prospect of insider share sales as lock-up restrictions begin to lift in the coming days.
With the broader market showing resilience—the Dow surged 640 points on easing geopolitical tensions—the focus now shifts to SpaceX's ability to reassure investors that its long-term strategy remains on track.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
