SpaceX is set to begin trading on the Nasdaq today under the ticker SPCX, following what is being called the largest initial public offering in history. The company, led by Elon Musk, priced shares at $135, targeting a valuation of approximately $1.77 trillion. The IPO raised $75 billion, offering investors exposure to a business that spans rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet, and artificial intelligence infrastructure.
The central question for investors is whether the current valuation already reflects future growth or if Wall Street is underestimating the opportunity. Analysts are sharply divided on the answer.
Bullish Calls: $190 and Beyond
Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target, implying roughly 41% upside from the IPO price. That target would value SpaceX at about $2.5 trillion over the next 12 to 18 months. Horan described SpaceX as “the only vertically integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing, and engineering talent.”
New Street Research’s Pierre Ferragu set a 12-month target of $165 per share, about 22% above the IPO price, with a more optimistic scenario of $330 if SpaceX captures a large share of emerging markets tied to Starlink, AI, and orbital infrastructure. ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood has also backed the IPO valuation, citing a plausible growth path for Starlink, Starship, and orbital AI. Morgan Stanley sees SpaceX revenue potentially reaching $3.4 trillion by 2040.
The bullish case centers on Starlink as a near-term cash generator and AI infrastructure as the longer-term prize. SpaceX’s ability to integrate satellites, data centers, and xAI-related assets could create a platform few rivals can replicate.
Bearish Warnings: Overvaluation Risks
Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens placed SpaceX’s fair value at $780 billion, less than half the IPO valuation. “We think the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO,” Owens said. While Morningstar acknowledges the value of SpaceX’s launch and Starlink businesses, it argues that the IPO price depends heavily on early-stage ventures like orbital data centers and AI ambitions linked to xAI.
Financial results underscore the concern. SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025, following a profitable year. Filing summaries indicate a steep $4.3 billion net loss in the first quarter of 2026, even as quarterly revenue rose to about $4.7 billion. Goldman Sachs has noted that to support a $1.75 trillion valuation through the end of the decade, SpaceX would need revenue growth on a scale rarely seen in public markets, with total revenue potentially reaching $474 billion by 2030, driven largely by AI.
NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran sits between the extremes, with a discounted cash flow model valuing SpaceX at around $1.2 trillion.
Day-One Trading Dynamics
Beyond analyst opinions, day-one trading may be influenced by supply constraints. Only a small portion of SpaceX shares will be available at launch, creating a tight float. Horan warned of “an initial demand/supply imbalance on SPCX shares given broad retail demand and accelerated index inclusion.” Reports suggest the IPO was four times oversubscribed, with orders reaching about $250 billion against the $75 billion raise.
Index inclusion could add further demand. A Nasdaq rule change may allow SpaceX to become eligible for Nasdaq-100 inclusion within 15 trading days, potentially triggering purchases by passive funds. However, investors should also watch the lock-up calendar, which has a staggered structure allowing some holders to sell portions of their shares after 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days, creating potential volatility windows later this year.
For more on related market movements, see our coverage of SpaceX Short Interest Surges to 29% of Float: Is a Meme Stock Squeeze Brewing? and SpaceX Stock Slips 2% as Lockup, Short Interest Weigh on Sentiment.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
