Solana's mainnet upgrade to Transaction V1, activated on September 15, has not been enough to lift the token's price, which continues to face downward pressure. The upgrade increases the maximum transaction size from 1,232 bytes to 4,096 bytes, a move that could enable more complex applications, but market sentiment remains bearish.
Technical upgrade expands network capabilities
The Transaction V1 format allows developers to bundle more data into a single transaction, supporting advanced use cases such as zero-knowledge proofs, larger multisignature setups, and sophisticated decentralized finance operations. Previously, such operations required splitting across multiple transactions, which increased complexity and cost.
While the upgrade is a significant technical milestone for Solana's infrastructure, it has not translated into immediate price appreciation. SOL continues to trade below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the hourly chart, indicating persistent short-term weakness.
Price action and key levels
SOL is currently hovering above its 200-day moving average, which preserves the broader bullish structure, but immediate resistance sits at $98.77. A decisive break above this level could open the door to the upper boundary of the consolidation range at $99.42.
On the downside, critical support is at $94.16. A failure to hold this level could trigger a sharper decline, as stop-loss orders and leveraged liquidations may accelerate selling pressure.
Momentum indicators are largely bearish. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a strong sell signal, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) confirms the negative trend. Bull/Bear Power also indicates sellers remain in control, though the Awesome Oscillator offers no clear directional cue.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic RSI have moved into negative territory on the daily chart, reflecting intense selling pressure. However, these oversold conditions could lead to a temporary relief bounce if buyers step in near support.
Market outlook and probabilities
Short-term scenario analysis suggests SOL will trade between $94.16 and $99.42, with a 76% probability of further downside and a 24% chance of a rebound. These figures come from one analytical model and are not guaranteed outcomes.
Analysts remain optimistic about the long-term benefits of Transaction V1, noting that it lays a stronger foundation for future adoption. Yet, as seen in other networks, technical improvements do not always lead to immediate token price gains.
For investors, the current situation mirrors broader market trends. Similar dynamics have played out in other assets, such as bitcoin facing macro headwinds and Solana's earlier resilience near $100. The crypto market remains sensitive to macroeconomic factors, as highlighted by rising Fed rate hike odds.
While the upgrade is a positive step for Solana's ecosystem, the immediate price action suggests that traders are focusing on technical levels and broader market conditions rather than fundamental improvements.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
