Bitcoin reversed lower on Tuesday, shedding more than 1% in the past 24 hours to trade below $77,000, after briefly rallying above $79,000 on Monday. The pullback has revived concerns that the leading cryptocurrency could test the $76,000 support level, with some technical patterns pointing to a deeper slide toward $70,000–$71,000.
Four macro clouds gather over crypto
Several macroeconomic forces are converging to weigh on risk assets, including Bitcoin. The most immediate is the surge in U.S. Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year note climbing above 5.02% on Tuesday—its highest level since mid-2007. Higher yields make safer investments more attractive relative to volatile assets like Bitcoin, which offers no contractual yield. They also tighten financial conditions and often bolster the U.S. dollar, reducing liquidity available for speculative markets.
Energy markets are adding to the pressure. Brent crude rose to approximately $107.37 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded above $103, following attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure that disrupted the East-West pipeline. That pipeline can redirect about 4% of global oil supplies away from the Strait of Hormuz, making it a critical chokepoint. Sustained high oil prices could feed into broader inflation, complicating central bank efforts to ease policy.
Monetary policy is the third headwind. Markets are pricing in roughly a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, which would be the first hike since mid-2023. A Reuters survey shows 85% of economists expect the federal funds target range to move to 3.75%–4%. Morgan Stanley economists also anticipate another hike in December, and futures markets imply several more increases through mid-2027. A prolonged tightening cycle raises the cost of capital and could prompt investors to trim exposure to high-risk assets.
Adding to the mix, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its policy rate to 1.25% on September 18, with about 97% of economists in a Reuters poll predicting that move. Higher Japanese rates could force a unwind of yen-funded carry trades, where investors borrowed cheaply in yen to invest in higher-yielding assets globally. A stronger yen and higher domestic rates would likely withdraw liquidity from equities, cryptocurrencies, and other risk-sensitive markets.
Technical picture weakens
On the daily chart, Bitcoin's bullish momentum is fading. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 52, well below the overbought reading of 83 seen on August 21 when BTC topped $82,000. Meanwhile, the MACD lines are converging toward negative territory, signaling that buying pressure is waning.
The chart also shows a potential rounded-top pattern. If Bitcoin loses its neckline near $76,000, the pattern suggests a possible decline toward $70,000–$71,000. The combination of rising yields, expensive oil, and simultaneous Fed and BOJ tightening could provide the catalysts for that breakdown.
However, a recovery above $80,000 would reduce the immediate bearish risk. Until then, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to a deeper correction as global liquidity conditions tighten. For context, record ETF inflows have not been enough to push BTC above $80K, and oil's surge above $100 has already pressured Bitcoin. Traders are also watching Ethereum's slide toward $2,400 as a sign of broader crypto weakness.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
