Solana (SOL) has paused after a 14% weekly rally, with the price currently trading near $81.63 resistance. Despite the short-term pullback, improving institutional sentiment, strengthening derivatives data, and expanding on-chain activity indicate the broader bullish trend remains intact. If key support levels hold, the cryptocurrency could target $90 and potentially $96 in the coming sessions.
Institutional Interest Returns
According to CoinGlass data, US-listed spot Solana ETFs attracted $5.8 million in net inflows last week, reversing the prior week's $1.8 million in net outflows. This return to positive flows signals renewed investor interest and could provide additional support for SOL in the weeks ahead. For context, earlier outflows had raised concerns about waning institutional demand, as covered in our previous analysis: Solana Holds $76 Support as ETF Outflows Signal Waning Institutional Demand.
On-Chain Activity Surges
Network activity across the Solana ecosystem continues to strengthen. According to Solana's official X account, tokenized asset spot trading volume reached $5.7 billion in the second quarter, more than doubling from $2.7 billion in the first quarter. This growth reflects increasing adoption of tokenized assets on the network, highlighting expanding institutional participation and demand for Solana-based applications.
Derivatives Market Signals Bullish Sentiment
The derivatives market reinforces the bullish narrative. Solana futures open interest (OI) climbed to $5.8 billion over the weekend, its highest level since mid-May, before easing slightly to approximately $5.6 billion on Monday. Higher open interest typically indicates increasing trader participation and conviction behind the prevailing trend. Additionally, funding rates turned positive on Sunday and stood at 0.0081% on Monday, meaning long-position holders are paying shorts—a sign that bullish sentiment is strengthening.
Technical Analysis: Resistance and Support Levels
Technically, Solana remains in a constructive position despite Monday's pullback. The price is trading above both the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $76.41 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $79.27, indicating buyers are defending important support. However, immediate resistance sits at the 100-day EMA near $81.63, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $83.78.
Momentum indicators favor buyers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near 60, suggesting positive momentum without entering overbought territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in bullish territory, reinforcing the upward trend. A sustained close above the 100-day EMA would strengthen the bullish outlook and potentially trigger a move toward the next major resistance at $90.21. Beyond that, the next key resistance levels are near $96.19, closely followed by the 200-day EMA around $96.73.
If bears regain control, the first support area sits near $79.27, with additional support around $77.06 and the 50-day EMA at $76.41. Should those levels fail, sellers could target the recent swing low at $74.75, with deeper downside support near $69.16 and $60.13.
Broader Market Context
Solana's rally comes amid a broader crypto market recovery, with other assets like Bitcoin Cash tracking Bitcoin's rally and Ethereum facing its own resistance at $1,800. While Solana has paused after last week's strong gains, the combination of renewed ETF inflows, expanding on-chain activity, rising futures participation, and positive funding rates all point to improving market sentiment. If buyers can push SOL above the resistance cluster between $81.63 and $83.78, the cryptocurrency could extend its recovery toward the $90 and $96 resistance zones in the coming sessions.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
