Rivian Automotive (RIVN) shares have been on a strong upward trajectory, reaching $20.15 on Monday—their highest level since early January. The stock has outperformed rivals such as Lucid and Tesla, buoyed by robust vehicle delivery numbers. Technical indicators suggest the rally may have further room to run ahead of the company's earnings report scheduled for July 30.
Technical Setup Points to More Upside
The daily chart reveals a golden cross formation, where the 50-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day moving average, a classic bullish signal. Since this crossover, Rivian shares have consistently traded above both averages. More notably, the stock has completed an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern, breaking above the neckline resistance at $18.17. This breakout confirms the bullish pattern, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to trend higher, indicating sustained momentum.
If the pattern holds, the next key target lies at $22.72. However, the move is unlikely to be linear. A pullback to retest the $18.17 support level—a common break-and-retest scenario—could occur before the uptrend resumes. Such a retest would serve as a bullish continuation signal if support holds.
Rising Demand and Production Expansion
Rivian's recent strength is underpinned by improving fundamentals. The company reported second-quarter deliveries of 12,194 vehicles, up from the prior quarter, while production reached 12,613 units. This growth trajectory is expected to accelerate once its Georgia plant comes online, adding 400,000 units of annual capacity to the existing 200,000-unit facility in Illinois.
Demand for Rivian's electric vehicles (EVs) has been supported by higher gasoline prices amid geopolitical tensions, as well as strong interest in the newly launched R2 model. The company also plans to introduce the more affordable R3 crossover and R3x variants, targeting a broader customer base. Additionally, Rivian is preparing to enter the European market next year, though it will face stiff competition from established domestic and Chinese automakers.
Revenue Growth Outlook vs. Persistent Losses
Analysts project Rivian's revenue will grow approximately 30% this year to $7 billion, followed by a 65% jump to $11.6 billion in 2025. If this pace continues, annual revenue could approach $20 billion in the coming years. However, the company remains unprofitable, and management has indicated it will not achieve EBITDA profitability next year. The ongoing cash burn raises the risk of shareholder dilution; Rivian's outstanding shares have already risen to 1.26 billion from 892 million in 2022.
Several analysts have set price targets near current levels. Needham has a $23 target, while Cowen, BNP Paribas, and Benchmark target $20, $22, and $25, respectively. The stock's recent rally has brought it closer to these estimates, suggesting that further upside may depend on earnings execution and sustained demand.
For broader market context, see our coverage of the Dow breaching 53,000 amid AI chip rally and the Rivian surge following JPMorgan's target hike.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
