Novo Nordisk (NVO) shares advanced on Tuesday after the Danish pharmaceutical company reported that its experimental obesity treatment, CagriSema, achieved an average weight loss of 25% in women with obesity or overweight in a late-stage clinical trial. The stock gained more than 2% as investors weighed the potential of CagriSema to succeed Wegovy, the company's blockbuster weight-loss drug.
The results were presented at the annual meeting of The Menopause Society in San Diego. In the REDEFINE 1 study, a 2.4 milligram dose of CagriSema led to an average weight loss of 25% after 68 weeks among 2,309 women, compared with 3% for those on a placebo. However, the full trial, which included more than 3,400 adults, showed an average weight loss of 22.7%, below Novo's target of 25%.
CagriSema is a once-weekly injection that combines cagrilintide, which mimics the pancreatic hormone amylin, and semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy. The drug is seen as a key part of Novo's strategy to defend its position in the rapidly expanding weight-loss market, where it faces intense competition from US rival Eli Lilly.
A separate post-hoc analysis of 1,902 women with overweight or obesity examined outcomes across different stages of menopause. After 68 weeks, average weight loss was 26.7% among premenopausal women, 24.8% among perimenopausal women, and 23.1% among postmenopausal women. Novo cautioned that post-hoc analyses are hypothesis-generating and require further study.
"Many women with obesity or overweight experience weight gain as they move through menopause, and it is important to explore investigational products such as CagriSema across the reproductive lifespan," said Michelle Skinner Moore, vice president of medical affairs at Novo.
The US Food and Drug Administration is expected to decide on CagriSema's approval for weight management in the fourth quarter of this year. A positive outcome could help Novo regain ground lost to Eli Lilly, whose Mounjaro and Zepbound have gained market share in the GLP-1 drug market.
Despite Tuesday's gains, Novo Nordisk shares have fallen more than 25% this year. The company faces pressure from declining US market share and the approaching patent expiry for semaglutide after 2030. Last week, BMO Capital lowered its price target on Novo shares to $40 from $47, citing difficult year-on-year comparisons and declining US market share. Morgan Stanley also downgraded Novo to Underweight last month, citing subdued medium-term growth prospects.
Novo has said it aims to launch more than five drugs with "multi-blockbuster" potential by 2030 and generate more than 150 billion Danish kroner ($23 billion) in pipeline sales by 2035. CagriSema is central to those plans, but its commercial potential will depend on the full trial results, regulatory review, and competition dynamics.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
