Nio's shares have extended their decline this month, touching $3.50 last week — the weakest level since July of last year and roughly 55% below the stock's 2025 peak. The pullback has unfolded alongside a broad retreat across Chinese electric-vehicle names, leaving investors focused on two near-term catalysts: a newly announced partnership with Geely Holdings and the company's third-quarter delivery report due later this week.
Chinese EV peers under pressure
The weakness is not confined to Nio. Xpeng fell to $10.12 on Friday, more than 60% below its year-to-date high and its lowest since September 2024. Li Auto has slipped to $11.50 from a 2025 peak of $20, while Polestar dropped to $6.93, down about 70% from its high this year. BYD, China's largest automaker, has also sold off sharply.
Behind the selloff is a reassessment of the industry's growth path. Competition has intensified, and Beijing has withdrawn some of the incentives that supported demand. BYD itself acknowledged in its results statement that conditions are becoming highly competitive while operating costs climb.
Nio's operating picture remains relatively resilient
Nio has held up better than many of its peers on fundamentals. Its most recent quarterly report showed vehicle deliveries rising to 107,658 units from 72,056 a year earlier. Vehicle revenue climbed to $4.28 billion, an 80% increase from the prior quarter, and vehicle margin reached 18.5% — above Tesla's 16.3%. Gross profit came in at $870 million, while the net loss narrowed to $77.8 million, largely due to share-based compensation. The balance sheet also remains solid, with cash and equivalents exceeding $8.4 billion.
Geely deal values battery-swapping unit at $2.4 billion
The company also announced a significant transaction with Geely Holdings covering its battery-swapping and charging operations. Under the agreement, Geely-owned Yiyi Internet will take roughly a 30% stake in Nio's battery-swapping business, implying a valuation of about $2.4 billion for that unit. The deal gives Nio a partner with scale in China's charging infrastructure while retaining majority control of the business.
Q3 delivery guidance in focus
Attention now turns to Nio's September and third-quarter delivery figures, expected later this week. Management has guided to Q3 deliveries of between 108,000 and 111,000 vehicles, which would represent roughly 25% annual growth. Hitting or missing that range is likely to shape near-term sentiment given the stock's depressed valuation.
Technical picture shows early signs of stabilization
On the daily chart, Nio has been in a pronounced downtrend since April, falling from a high near $7 to the current $3.58 and printing a series of lower lows. The shares broke below the $4.37 support level — their February low — as well as the psychological $4 mark.
Some indicators suggest the decline may be losing momentum. The MACD has formed a bullish crossover, and the Relative Strength Index has moved up from oversold territory. While the broader bearish trend could persist, those signals raise the possibility of a rebound toward the $4.37 resistance level.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
