Bitcoin's price is under pressure as JPMorgan flags a broad retreat of the 'debasement trade' and miner revenue slides to levels last seen during the 2022 bear market. At the time of writing, BTC trades around $63,752, recovering from a weekly low of $59,353 but still 49.4% below its all-time high of $126,080 reached on October 6, 2025.
JPMorgan: Debasement Trade Unwinding
JPMorgan analysts describe the current market as a 'broad-based retreat of the debasement trade,' a macro thesis that had previously funneled billions into Bitcoin and gold as hedges against currency devaluation. The trigger, according to the bank, is the thawing of US-Iran tensions, which has removed the geopolitical urgency supporting risk-off assets.
The impact is visible in fund flows. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have shed $2.1 billion since the start of June, while gold ETFs saw $20 billion exit in the single week through June 5. Since October 12, 2025, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $10.5 billion in cumulative outflows, the steepest drawdown since these products launched, according to analyst Darkfost.
Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Swiss digital asset bank Sygnum, offers a counterpoint, arguing that the bulk of selling is mechanical—specifically, the unwinding of cash-and-carry arbitrage positions as the futures basis premium compresses. He points to stable exchange flows and steady stablecoin supply as evidence of no broad flight from the asset class.
Despite its near-term warning, JPMorgan maintains its longer-term Bitcoin price targets: a 6-to-12-month estimate of $170,000 and a structural long-run target of $266,000, based on a model comparing Bitcoin's market size to the roughly $8 trillion held in private-sector gold, adjusted for volatility.
Technical Analysis: $64K Is the Key Level
On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin is forming an ascending triangle since the June 4 crash, with a flat ceiling in the $63,800–$64,000 area and a rising floor of higher lows. A four-hour close above $64,000 could trigger a move toward $68,000–$68,200, a historically significant resistance zone.
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin is clinging to its 200-week simple moving average near $62,000, a level that has acted as a floor during previous bear markets. The bounce from $59,353 without decisively breaking that average has opened the possibility of a double-bottom structure. Holding above the 200-week SMA could target the 20-week SMA at $71,500, with the double-bottom neckline near $81,800–$82,000. A weekly close above that neckline would project a move toward $115,000–$116,000 over the longer term.
However, the weekly RSI reading of 34.57 indicates momentum has not turned yet, and Bitcoin trades below both its 20-week and 50-week SMAs. Bulls need to avoid a weekly close under $62,000 that extends below $60,000, which would cancel the double-bottom thesis and confirm a bear flag with a downside projection to $51,000.
Miner Revenue Nears 2022 Stress Levels
The price weakness is hitting miners hard. The Puell Multiple, which measures daily miner revenue relative to the 365-day average, has slid from 0.83 at the end of May to 0.74. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. notes that readings near 0.50 have historically lined up with mass miner shutdowns, as seen during the 2022 cycle bottom.
The miner capitulation indicator is at -21%, well past the -15% level that marks severe financial strain, indicating that a substantial portion of the network is barely breaking even or actively losing money per block mined. JPMorgan had earlier noted that Bitcoin's average production cost fell from around $94,000 in late 2025 to approximately $77,000 in early 2026, as rising energy costs and falling prices forced the least efficient miners offline. With BTC still trading more than $13,000 below that cost estimate, the squeeze on miners has not eased, and some may be forced to sell their Bitcoin reserves to keep operations funded.
For broader market context, see our coverage of Tesla's rebound and JPMorgan's blockchain deposit network plans.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
