Ethereum has rebounded sharply over the past 24 hours, climbing nearly 3% to approach the $1,800 level, as a historic US-Iran peace deal triggers a broad risk-on move across financial markets. The question now is whether ETH can sustain momentum and break through the key $1,780 resistance zone.
US-Iran Deal Fuels Crypto Rally
The primary catalyst behind Ethereum's latest surge is the reported agreement between the United States and Iran, set to take effect on Friday. According to President Donald Trump, the US will lift its naval blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz after the deal is signed. Analysts note that markets are repricing geopolitical risk, driving a rotation into risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
This rally appears driven by positioning and sentiment rather than a fundamental shift in Ethereum's network metrics or adoption. Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where new Chair Kevin Warsh will preside for the first time. The decline in crude oil prices resulting from the US-Iran deal could strengthen the case for rate cuts, providing further relief for crypto markets, even if an actual cut remains unlikely this year.
Technical Outlook: Short-Term Bullish, Long-Term Cautious
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum has flipped bullish, trading above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. This suggests buyers are defending near-term support. However, the broader trend remains weak, with ETH still trading below its 200-day moving average near $2,409, keeping longer-term bearish pressure intact.
Immediate support is at the recent low of $1,668.10, which now serves as a key pivot zone. Momentum indicators present a mixed picture: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64 indicates positive momentum but is approaching overbought territory, while the MACD continues to signal buy conditions. However, the Stoch RSI, CCI, and BBP all suggest overbought conditions, implying the recent rally may be stretched.
If the rally continues, Ethereum could push toward the first major resistance at $1,778. A daily close above this level could open the door for an extended move toward the $1,942 resistance zone. Conversely, if bearish pressure returns, bulls must defend the $1,668 support to enable a quick bounce. A breakdown below that level could trigger renewed selling and shift sentiment back to bearish dominance.
For broader context, Ethereum's recent price action follows a sharp selloff in June 2026 driven by escalating US-Iran tensions, a hawkish Fed stance, and outflows from spot crypto ETFs. The current rally offers a reprieve, but macroeconomic uncertainty and regulatory pressures continue to cap upside conviction. Traders are closely watching both technical breakouts and global economic developments for direction.
Related reading: Ethereum Retreats After Brief $1,930 Break as Macro Headwinds Return and Ethereum Holds Above $1,900 as Staking Revenue Surges; Key Resistance at $1,950.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
