Bitcoin's price action this week tells a story of cautious optimism. The leading cryptocurrency climbed above $67,000 on Monday before retreating to $66,720, a modest 1% gain over 24 hours and 5.8% on the week. While traditional risk assets surged on progress toward an Iran ceasefire, Bitcoin's muted response has left traders questioning whether a breakout above $70,000 is imminent.
Macro Markets Rally, Bitcoin Hesitates
Broader financial markets reacted decisively to news that President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance signed an electronic memorandum of understanding with Iran. The agreement, which aims to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Friday, sent oil prices tumbling—Brent crude fell below $83 per barrel after its steepest drop in over two weeks. Equities also rallied, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 climbing 3.1%.
Bitcoin, however, failed to match that enthusiasm. The cryptocurrency briefly touched an intraday high of $67,217 before losing momentum, highlighting a divergence between digital assets and traditional markets.
Analysts Point to Ceasefire Skepticism
Market participants attribute Bitcoin's hesitation to lingering doubts about the durability of the geopolitical improvement. Jimmy Xue, co-founder and COO of Axis, described the rally as a relief move that the market hasn't fully bought yet, rather than a clear risk-on redeployment into Bitcoin. He noted that this marks the third attempted truce in the region, with previous ceasefire rallies in April and June reversing when tensions resumed.
Adding to the uncertainty, Trump suggested the deal could be revoked if Iran fails to agree to shut down its nuclear program. Traders are reportedly waiting for a scheduled June 19 signing in Switzerland before treating the agreement as durable.
Institutional Outflows Weigh on Momentum
Part of Bitcoin's restrained reaction may stem from persistent institutional selling. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded four consecutive weeks of outflows totaling roughly $5.4 billion, including a single record week of about $3.4 billion. On Monday alone, Bitcoin ETFs saw an outflow of $64.80 million, suggesting institutions have yet to resume accumulation. The absence of consistent institutional demand continues to limit upside momentum for the leading cryptocurrency.
For context, recent outflows contrast with the broader crypto market's resilience. For instance, Ethereum retreated after a brief $1,930 break, while Bitcoin held $62K support earlier this month, signaling that key levels remain in focus.
Technical Outlook: Can Bitcoin Reclaim $70,000?
The BTC/USD 4-hour chart remains bullish, with the broader cryptocurrency market maintaining an uptrend. At press time, Bitcoin trades above the $66,000 level, and momentum indicators suggest bulls are still in control. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 64 from 71 on Monday but retains a bullish bias, while the MACD lines remain in positive territory.
If the rally resumes, Bitcoin could surpass Monday's high of $67,300 and target the first major resistance level at $68,003. A daily candle close above this threshold could pave the way for a test of the $70,000 level for the first time in two weeks. Conversely, if the market correction persists, Bitcoin may retest the first major support level at $63,707—a 4-hour Transactional Liquidity (TLQ) zone that could act as a reversal point.
Investors should also monitor related assets. For example, Silver broke $60 amid dollar weakness, while Nvidia stock forms a falling wedge pattern, highlighting divergent trends across asset classes.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
