Bitcoin has reclaimed the $63,000 level, adding 2.5% in the past 24 hours, but the sustainability of this move is in question as institutional and retail participation remains subdued. The question on many investors' minds: can BTC push toward $65,000 despite ongoing headwinds?
ETF Outflows Extend Losing Streak
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $213 million on Wednesday, marking the fourth consecutive day of withdrawals, according to CoinGlass data. This persistent selling pressure from institutional players suggests that large-scale buyers have yet to step in to absorb the current downturn. The lack of institutional demand is a key factor capping Bitcoin's upside potential in the near term.
Onchain Metrics Signal Fragile Sentiment
Glassnode's weekly report, released Wednesday, highlights persistent weakness across several onchain indicators. The AVIV Ratio, which compares Bitcoin's spot price to its True Market Mean, fell to a four-year z-score low of -1.09 before a slight recovery to -1.06. The firm noted that price has not bounced meaningfully away from this cyclical low, underscoring the persistence of fear in market sentiment.
Short-term holders are bearing the brunt of the downturn. The Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) ratio dropped to 0.81, later recovering to 0.83, implying that recent buyers are sitting on unrealized losses of approximately 17%–19%. Glassnode also observed that coins accumulated in the $78,000–$82,000 range are now largely held at a loss, with more than 95% of the recent buyer cohort underwater.
Market Moving Toward Capitulation
Glassnode characterized the current environment as moving deeper into a capitulation phase. While leverage has largely reset and valuation indicators have reached historically low levels, the demand response typically associated with long-term market bottoms has not yet emerged. The short-term holder supply in profit fell to just 0.6% before rising to 3.3%, far below the four-year average of 55%.
This data suggests that the rally seen last month may have been a bear bounce rather than the start of a sustained recovery. New investors are increasingly sitting on unrealized losses, and the market remains in a demand-constrained phase.
Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin's momentum indicators remain mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 53, above the neutral 50, indicating fading bearish momentum. However, the MACD lines remain in negative territory, suggesting buyers have not yet regained full control.
If the recovery continues, BTC could target the 4-hour Transactional Liquidity (TLQ) level at $64,712. A daily close above this resistance could open the door for a move toward the $68,000 zone. Conversely, if the rally fails, Bitcoin is likely to retest the Tuesday low of $60,351, with a further demand zone at $59,106 also in play.
For broader market context, recent volatility has been influenced by geopolitical tensions and broader risk-off sentiment, as seen in Bitcoin's dip below $63K amid Iran tensions and $120K BTC ETF outflows. Meanwhile, institutional interest in other digital assets remains mixed, with XRP's $1 support at risk as institutional demand wanes.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
