Zcash (ZEC) extended its three-day recovery on Monday, trading above $1,320 after a 4% gain the previous session. The rebound persists even as Grayscale's Zcash-focused exchange-traded fund continues to see capital withdrawals, though the pace of redemptions has slowed.
ETF outflows ease but remain substantial
According to SoSoValue, Grayscale's ZCSH recorded $30.72 million in net outflows last week, a notable decline from the $93.56 million withdrawn the prior week. Combined, the two-week total reached $124.28 million. While the slowdown suggests redemption pressure is easing, the persistent negative flows indicate that demand through the fund remains weak.
The withdrawals follow a 3-for-1 share split last month, but the timing alone does not establish a causal link between the split and investor redemptions.
Technical picture: resistance cluster and momentum signals
On the four-hour chart, ZEC is trading above a tightly grouped pair of exponential moving averages. The 50-period EMA sits near $1,279, while the 200-period EMA is around $1,274. With the price above $1,320, the asset has cleared this cluster, but the declining 50-period EMA is approaching a crossover below the 200-period EMA. Such a crossover, if confirmed, would reinforce a cautious technical outlook.
Bulls have also pushed through the $1,296 resistance level, which was the September 9 high, and may now turn that zone into support. Momentum indicators have strengthened during the rebound: the Relative Strength Index is near 51, above its neutral midpoint, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is rising alongside its signal line. These readings suggest that the earlier corrective pressure is easing, but ZEC still needs a sustained move through nearby resistance to solidify the case for further gains.
Outlook: upside target vs. downside risk
A sustained breakout above the moving-average cluster and the $1,296 resistance would weaken the bearish scenario and open the door to $1,422, corresponding to the September 18 low. Conversely, rejection around the current resistance zone could interrupt the recovery and renew selling pressure.
The downside reference is $1,050, marked by the September 4 high. A move to that level would represent a decline of roughly 18% from $1,278.
For now, improving momentum supports the rebound, while continued ETF withdrawals and the nearby resistance cluster leave its durability uncertain.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
