Zcash (ZEC) is trading near $1,319 on October 7, having retreated sharply from its late-September high around $1,700. The pullback has brought the cryptocurrency close to a previously identified support zone of $1,220–$1,300, and technical indicators suggest the correction may not be over.
Last month, analysts flagged a bearish divergence in Zcash's Relative Strength Index (RSI) as the price approached resistance between $1,700 and $1,750. That divergence signaled weakening momentum despite rising prices, hinting at a possible retreat toward $1,220–$1,300. ZEC subsequently pushed higher before reversing, and its current price sits just above the upper boundary of that projected correction zone.
The reversal indicates that buyers have struggled to sustain the pace of September's advance. However, reaching a previously forecast area does not establish where the decline will end. On the weekly chart, Zcash has slipped below the 2.618 Fibonacci extension near $1,722 after failing to hold its recent highs.
Technical analysis identifies the 1.618 Fibonacci level around $1,136 as the next important downside reference. A move from $1,319 to that level would represent a decline of approximately 14%. Further below, the rising 20-week exponential moving average stands near $900. Together, these levels define a broad potential support region between $900 and $1,136, rather than a tightly clustered support zone. A test of $900 would imply a decline of roughly 32% from $1,319, although the moving average's position will change over time.
Zcash's weekly RSI remains around the mid-60s after recently approaching overbought territory. That reading indicates momentum is still relatively strong but has cooled from its earlier extremes. It also leaves room for further normalization if selling continues. The weekly setup therefore supports a possible retracement toward $1,136, with the 20-week EMA becoming a deeper reference if pressure intensifies. These remain conditional technical scenarios.
On the daily chart, ZEC is developing a potential bear pennant following a sharp decline from approximately $1,650. The initial drop was followed by tightening consolidation around $1,300–$1,400. A decisive break below the formation's lower trendline would support a bearish continuation interpretation. Using the height of the preceding decline, the analysis projects a possible target between $986 and $1,000. That would represent roughly 24%–25% downside from $1,319.
The target sits near the rising 100-day EMA around $953, creating a broader support region between approximately $950 and $1,000. Until a breakdown occurs, the pennant remains a developing pattern. Zcash's next move will depend on whether buyers can stabilize the consolidation or sellers push the price below its lower boundary.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
