XRP has maintained its position around $1.49 over the past 24 hours, with a combination of institutional developments and market dynamics potentially setting the stage for another attempt at the $1.60 level. According to CoinGecko, the token is up roughly 0.5% on the day, though it remains 7.7% lower over the past week.
Over the last seven days, XRP has traded within a range of approximately $1.46 to $1.63. Its recent rebound toward $1.55 was quickly followed by a pullback, leaving the asset in a consolidation phase. The current price action comes as several catalysts align, including Ripple's expansion of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) into Brazil's regulated financial market.
Ripple's Brazil Expansion
On September 29, Ripple announced that CSD BR, a Brazilian central securities depository, will adopt XRPL as an additional recording and auditing layer for financial assets. The initial use case involves investment fund shares issued by BTG Pactual. While CSD BR remains the official system of record, information registered through its existing infrastructure will be mirrored on XRPL. Ripple described this deployment as moving tokenisation beyond controlled tests and into a live market environment, giving XRPL a role in Brazil's financial market infrastructure at a time when XRP is trying to hold above the $1.45 to $1.50 support zone.
Evernorth Merger Vote
Institutional attention could intensify on September 30, as shareholders of Armada Acquisition Corp. II are scheduled to vote on its proposed merger with Evernorth, an XRP treasury company. If approved, Evernorth plans to list on Nasdaq under the ticker XRPN. The company is backed by Ripple, SBI, Pantera, and Kraken, and is expected to launch with at least 473 million XRP, with plans to deploy capital across the XRP ecosystem. While the shareholder vote is a significant step, it does not guarantee an immediate XRP purchase by Evernorth.
ETF Inflows and Whale Accumulation
US spot XRP ETFs recorded $75.59 million in net inflows during the week ended September 25, bringing cumulative net inflows to approximately $1.79 billion. The trend continued in the latest sessions, with $3.96 million in inflows on September 28 following $22.65 million the previous day. This sustained inflow provides a source of spot-market demand as XRP attempts to recover from its recent decline.
Large holders have also been active. Santiment data shows that millionaire wallets accumulated more than 470 million XRP within five days, increasing their combined holdings from 12.37 billion to 12.80 billion XRP. The purchases were valued at roughly $724 million at the time, with the accumulation occurring before September 24.
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, XRP is trading near $1.50, having recovered from its August low near $1.00. The price sits above all four major exponential moving averages (EMAs): the 20-day EMA at $1.4608, the 50-day EMA at $1.3718, the 100-day EMA at $1.3716, and the 200-day EMA at $1.3114. The 20-day EMA has moved above the longer averages, and XRP's current price is roughly 2.5% above it. Holding $1.46 would keep price above its nearest dynamic support, leaving the $1.55 to $1.60 region within reach. A daily close below $1.46 would weaken that structure and expose the closely grouped 50-day and 100-day EMAs near $1.37, with the 200-day EMA at $1.31 as the next major support.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56.50, with its moving average at 58.65. RSI remains above the neutral 50 level without entering overbought territory, leaving room for upward movement if buying pressure returns. A move above 60 would strengthen momentum, while a drop below 50 would signal a loss of momentum toward the $1.46 support.
On the 4-hour chart, XRP is trading at $1.4960, positioned between the lower Bollinger Band at $1.4688 and the middle band at $1.5048, with the upper band at $1.5408. Price has repeatedly held near the lower band following its retreat from the recent peak near $1.65. A move above the middle band would put $1.54 back in focus, and a break above the upper band could open the route toward the $1.55 to $1.60 resistance zone. The 4-hour MACD remains slightly bearish, but the gap between the MACD line (-0.0071) and signal line (-0.0064) is narrow, with the histogram near zero at -0.0007. A bullish crossover near the zero line, combined with a move above the Bollinger midline, would support an attempt at $1.54 first.
Clearing $1.54 to $1.55 would leave $1.60 as the next target, followed by the recent high around $1.65. Failure to recover $1.50 to $1.54 could keep XRP near the lower Bollinger Band at $1.4688. A break below that level would bring the daily 20-day EMA near $1.46 into play, while a daily loss of $1.46 would expose the $1.37 area formed by the 50-day and 100-day EMAs.
In summary, XRP could make another run at $1.60 if it clears the $1.54 to $1.55 resistance zone, while a break below $1.46 would put the bullish case at risk.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
