XRP has declined roughly 2.2% over the past 24 hours to trade near $1.35, as rising US interest-rate expectations and weak short-term momentum keep the token below the $1.40 threshold. The pullback comes despite continued inflows into US spot XRP ETFs, highlighting the current dominance of macro-driven selling pressure.
US producer prices rose 0.4% in August, adding to inflation concerns amid elevated energy costs. Interest-rate markets now price about a 70% to 71% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike next week, while the 10-year Treasury yield hovers near 5%. These conditions have pressured risk assets across the board, with Bitcoin trading around $77,100 during Asian hours and Ether also lower.
Brent crude remains above $100 as Middle East tensions keep supply worries alive, further stoking inflation expectations. The next macro catalyst is the US consumer price index due later on Friday. A hotter-than-expected reading could solidify the case for a September hike, while a softer figure might ease some of the pressure from Treasury yields.
XRP's decline has coincided with derivatives deleveraging. Open interest fell roughly 14% earlier this week, from about $558 million to $478 million, while the estimated leverage ratio dropped from 0.203 to 0.182. Approximately $14.2 million in XRP positions were liquidated over two sessions, with long positions bearing the brunt during Thursday's inflation-driven slide—about $13.66 million in longs were wiped out as the price moved toward the $1.33-$1.35 zone.
Spot ETF flows have moved in the opposite direction. US spot XRP ETFs had accumulated roughly $1.68 billion in net inflows earlier this week, although weekly inflows slowed to around $19 million from about $110 million the prior week. Another $12.29 million entered the products immediately before Thursday's decline, suggesting institutional interest remains intact despite the price weakness.
Technical picture: support and resistance levels
On the daily chart, XRP still holds above its three major simple moving averages—the 50-day at $1.212, the 100-day at $1.164, and the 200-day near $1.274. The 200-day SMA is the closest and serves as a key downside reference if current support fails.
The immediate focus is on the $1.33 area, where buyers stepped in during the latest sell-off. A break below that level could expose $1.32 and then the psychological $1.30 mark, with the 200-day SMA near $1.274 becoming the next probable target. Aroon readings on the daily chart show Aroon Up at 42.9% and Aroon Down at 35.7%, leaving the trend without a strong directional signal.
The 4-hour chart is more bearish. The Directional Movement Index has -DI near 23.5, above +DI at roughly 15.0, indicating sellers currently have more directional control. However, the ADX reading near 19.5 remains below 20, suggesting the bearish move has yet to develop into a strong trend. The Rate of Change on the same timeframe stands at -3.18%, confirming negative momentum.
Liquidation heatmaps show a sizeable concentration of leveraged positions around $1.32-$1.33. A move through that zone could take XRP toward $1.30, followed by the daily 200-day SMA. Above the market, liquidity is heavier around $1.38-$1.39, with another concentration near $1.40-$1.41. A recovery could therefore draw price toward $1.38 first, but XRP would need to reclaim $1.40-$1.41 to break above the area that has capped recent rebounds. The next resistance sits around $1.45, followed by the early September region near $1.48-$1.50.
For broader context, similar dynamics have been observed in other assets. For instance, Ethereum's price ceiling has held despite ETF inflows, and XRP's recent dip shows the same pattern of leverage unwinding. Meanwhile, oil's surge has not rattled equities, but crypto remains sensitive to rate expectations.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
