Solana (SOL) has climbed back above the $100 mark, extending its recovery from a mid-week dip below $96. The token gained 3.5% over the past 24 hours to trade near $100 on Sept. 17, according to CoinGecko data. The move comes as Moscow Exchange (MOEX) announced plans to launch perpetual futures tied to its Solana index, adding a fresh catalyst for the digital asset.
MOEX crypto futures expansion
MOEX revealed on Sept. 16 that it will introduce one-day futures contracts tracking Solana, alongside similar products for Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, and Tron, with trading set to begin on Sept. 22. These contracts will be quoted in U.S. dollars but settled in Russian rubles, with no physical delivery of the underlying cryptocurrencies. Access will be limited to qualified investors, a category that has already shown significant engagement with MOEX's existing crypto-linked derivatives. The exchange reports that over 72,000 qualified investors have traded such products, with cumulative turnover exceeding 600 billion rubles.
The announcement provided a fresh boost for SOL, which had been struggling to hold the $100 psychological level. After opening near $102.59 on Sept. 15 and closing around $96.93, the token saw a 5.45% drop that day. A 1.73% recovery on Sept. 16 was followed by another push higher on Thursday, bringing the price back above $100.
Macro headwinds persist
Despite the rebound, broader market conditions remain challenging. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Sept. 16, lifting the target range to 3.75%–4.00%—the first hike in over three years. The central bank's median projections indicate one more quarter-point increase before the end of 2026. Following the decision, the U.S. dollar strengthened and short-term Treasury yields moved higher, pressures that have historically weighed on risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Fed officials described inflation as elevated, reinforcing the likelihood of a prolonged period of higher borrowing costs. This macro backdrop could limit the sustainability of SOL's recovery, as investors weigh the impact of tighter financial conditions on speculative assets.
Institutional and network developments
Institutional access to Solana through regulated products remains a key theme. Spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to provide exposure, though recent inflows have been modest compared to earlier accumulation phases. The MOEX announcement stands out as the more immediate Solana-specific catalyst behind Thursday's price action.
On the network side, the proposed Alpenglow upgrade remains a separate long-term driver. This consensus system aims to replace TowerBFT and target finality of around 150 milliseconds, a dramatic improvement over the current ~12.8 seconds. Mainnet activation is expected during the third quarter of 2026, aligned with Anza's Agave 4.3 release schedule.
Technical analysis: key levels to watch
On the daily chart, Solana is holding near $100 after pulling back from its late August high near $110. The recent decline found support in the $96–$97 zone before buyers pushed the token back above $100. Nearest visible support sits at $97.16, while resistance is at $109.32.
The Directional Movement Index (DMI) indicates the trend remains established despite the pullback. The Average Directional Index (ADX) stands at 41.64, well above the 25 threshold typically associated with a strong trend. The +DI at 24.99 remains above the −DI at 14.88, though the gap has narrowed as +DI has fallen from early September levels and −DI has started to rise.
A daily close above the recent $103–$105 trading area could bring the $109.32 resistance back into focus. Breaking that level would take SOL above the late August and early September peaks, potentially opening a move toward $112.50 and then $115. Conversely, failure to hold the $97.16 area would weaken the current recovery, with the next visible support zone around $94–$95, followed by $90 if sellers push further.
On the 4-hour chart, Solana's Rate of Change (ROC) has climbed to 3.42 after falling below zero during the Sept. 15 selloff. Price has risen alongside the move back into positive ROC territory, recovering from below $97 to just over $100. The Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) line has turned higher at 139.93 million after declining through much of the first half of September. While still below its early September peak above 142 million, the recent uptick has accompanied SOL's recovery from the $96 area.
The 4-hour structure places $102.50 as immediate resistance, followed by $105. A break above $105 would bring the $107.50–$110 region back into play. If SOL is rejected below $102.50 and falls through $97, the $95 area becomes the next target, with the daily support structure weakening below that level.
As the market digests the MOEX news and Fed policy, traders will be watching whether Solana can sustain its momentum or if macro pressures will cap further gains. For related context, see our coverage on Solana's ETF inflows and network metrics and Solana's reaction to Fed rate hike odds.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
