The recent US Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs has opened a potential refund window for exporters worldwide, including those in India. While headlines suggest billions in duties could be reclaimed, the practical reality is far narrower, with eligibility hinging on shipping terms, importer status, and a complex filing process. In an interview with Invezz, Ishita Chawla, Lead of the E-Commerce Vertical at Skydo, detailed the true scale of the opportunity and the significant hurdles exporters face.
India's Refund Opportunity: $12 Billion Headline vs. $150 Million Reality
Chawla noted that the global refund pool is estimated at $166 billion, with India's linked share at roughly $12 billion according to GTRI. However, that figure overstates what Indian exporters can actually claim. The $12 billion represents total IEEPA duties paid on Indian-origin goods, but only DDP (Delivered Duty Paid) shipments—where the Indian exporter paid US customs duty and is the Importer of Record (IOR)—are eligible. Based on shipping volumes, Skydo estimates the realistic DDP-eligible pool at closer to $150 million.
Sectors most exposed include textiles and apparel, gems and jewellery, leather and footwear, marine products, chemicals, and automobile components, which collectively make up over 55% of India's exports to the US.
Key Misconceptions and Awareness Gaps
Many exporters are unaware of their eligibility. Chawla highlighted that even those who shipped on DDP terms often cannot confirm whether they are the IOR without checking their CBP entry summary document. Those who are the IOR face a cumbersome process via the CAPE portal, which requires ACE access, structured CSV uploads, and validation against CBP records—far more involved than a simple online form.
Exporters who discover they are not the IOR—with the designation sitting with their US buyer or freight partner—face an even harder problem. The refund is legally disbursed to the IOR, not the exporter, leaving them reliant on commercial negotiation with a party under no obligation to pass the money back.
Complexities of the CAPE Filing Process
The CAPE filing process is more involved than most expect. Filers must upload a structured CSV of entry numbers through the ACE portal, which runs two rounds of validation. Common mistakes include formatting errors, but complications start earlier. Exporters need to locate their CBP Form 5106, often filed years ago, and the email address on that form must be current—CBP sends an OTP to that address, so outdated details stall the process.
Identifying which shipments had IEEPA duty codes applied is a largely manual exercise of reviewing entry summaries. Some filers discover original entries were filed incorrectly during the tariff period, leading to mismatched refund amounts. Additionally, Indian exporters need a US bank account to receive ACH refunds, which most lack.
Importer of Record Coordination Challenges
Many Indian exporters don't have their IOR documentation readily accessible—CBP Form 5106, EIN, and import entry copies typically sit with their freight forwarder. Chawla advised checking field no. 26 on the customs entry summary: if the company name appears there, they are the IOR. For exporters with dozens of consignments across multiple logistics partners, compiling paperwork is an operational burden. The problem worsens when the freight partner is the IOR, disqualifying the exporter entirely, often discovered only after documents are pulled.
Larger exporters with their own customs bonds and clean records navigate this more smoothly.
Disproportionate Pain for SMEs
For SMEs exporting to the US, the pain was severe. Most operate on thin margins with limited working capital. A 26% tariff compressed margins heavily, and escalation to 50% in August 2025 made many product categories uncompetitive overnight. The practical response for many was to stop shipping to the US during the high-tariff window, resulting in lost revenue with no immediate alternative.
The refund process adds a second layer of difficulty: per-exporter refund amounts for smaller shippers are modest, but filing costs and documentation burdens are essentially fixed regardless of claim size. This dynamic, combined with persistent trade policy uncertainty, is pushing many exporters to diversify beyond America.
For broader context on how tariff uncertainty is affecting markets, see our coverage of Copper Dips Below $14,000 as Tariff Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risks Weigh and the Magnificent 7 Shed $2.3 Trillion amid shifting trade policies.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
