Shares of SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics rallied on Friday, rebounding from recent losses as investors weighed fresh warnings from Intel about persistent memory shortages against concerns that the current upcycle may be peaking.
SK Hynix climbed 4.47% and Samsung gained 2.97% in Seoul trading, following a strong session for U.S. chipmakers. Micron rose 5.5%, Nvidia added 2.54%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index advanced 3.14% overnight. The move came as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield eased to 4.94% after touching its highest level since 2007, reducing valuation pressure on growth-oriented tech stocks.
Intel's warning adds to supply concerns
Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan told investors that memory prices have surged five- to sevenfold and warned that shortages could intensify as customers struggle to secure adequate supply. He noted that memory production capacity remains "very limited" and that some projects are being delayed due to chip scarcity.
"As you know, they have gone up 5, 6, or 7 times," Tan said, underscoring the severity of the supply-demand imbalance. His comments carry particular weight for Samsung and SK Hynix, which dominate DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) production.
The warning aligns with the bullish outlook from KB Securities. Analyst Kim Dong-won told Maeil Business Newspaper that customers are receiving only about 60% of the memory they request from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. He added that roughly 70% of total production capacity is locked into long-term supply contracts, while orders remain robust despite fears that slower AI development could curb infrastructure spending.
SK Hynix outperforms on HBM exposure and Intel talks
SK Hynix's stronger gain reflects its heavier reliance on HBM, where AI-related demand remains intense. The company also has a potential catalyst after reports emerged that it is exploring a U.S. manufacturing arrangement with Intel. Discussions are still preliminary, with options reportedly including leasing part of Intel's Ohio facility or forming a joint venture. Intel shares surged 5% on the talks, though SK Hynix has not confirmed a deal.
The macro backdrop has also become less hostile. Lower bond yields reduce the discount rate applied to future earnings, which had pressured semiconductor stocks after the Federal Reserve's rate increase. Han Ji-young of Kiwoom Securities told ChosunBiz that "with the FOMC as a turning point, macro uncertainty is passing its peak." She noted that seven consecutive sessions of foreign selling were not necessarily a sign of deteriorating fundamentals.
Peak-memory call faces pushback
Friday's rebound does not resolve the debate over where the memory cycle heads next. BNK Investment & Securities analyst Lee Min-hee warned this week that "memory prices are unlikely to rise further and demand elasticity is weakening," according to Seoul Economic Daily. BNK cut its Samsung target to 270,000 won from 300,000 won and downgraded the stock to Hold, arguing that aggressive capacity expansion could weaken the supply-demand balance.
That view now sits directly against the shortage evidence. Intel says scarcity is severe enough to delay projects, and KB says customers are receiving only around 60% of requested supply. BNK believes pricing power is approaching its limit as producers add capacity and buyers become more price-sensitive.
The next test will be whether DRAM, NAND, and HBM prices keep rising into 2027 as new capacity comes online. For now, the market appears to be siding with the bulls, as Goldman Sachs maintains a 93% upside view on Samsung and BofA sees the semiconductor market reaching $3.2 trillion by 2030.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
