Samsung Electronics shares reversed an early advance on Thursday, as the market digested the Federal Reserve's latest rate hike. The stock opened at 257,000 won and touched 259,000 won before slipping back toward Wednesday's close of 253,500 won. The reversal underscores a widening gap between cautious global investors and analysts who remain bullish on the memory chip cycle.
The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase since July 2023. While the move was widely expected, the focus has shifted to how long elevated rates may persist. The US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.00% on September 16, according to Federal Reserve data, keeping the discount rate on future tech earnings unusually high.
Han Ji-young of Kiwoom Securities told SBS that investors should "place greater weight on the trajectory of 10-year yields and international oil prices" than on a single quarter-point hike. That helps explain Samsung's early reversal. Higher long-term yields can pressure semiconductor valuations even when fundamentals remain solid, and they also tighten global liquidity at a time when foreign investors have been reducing Korean exposure.
Foreign investors sold Samsung shares throughout much of September, including more than two million shares on Wednesday despite the stock's 2% advance. This persistent selling highlights the macro headwinds facing the sector.
Goldman Sachs, however, remains strikingly bullish. The bank maintained its Buy rating on Samsung and SK Hynix after discussions with North American investors, where sentiment toward the memory cycle stayed broadly positive. Goldman kept its Samsung target at 490,000 won, implying roughly 93% upside from Wednesday's close. The bank expects third-quarter DRAM and NAND average selling prices to rise about 20% sequentially, and forecasts HBM average selling prices to increase roughly 100% next year as AI infrastructure demand keeps supply tight.
That creates a central tension: the Fed is pushing investors to demand higher returns from risk assets just as Goldman believes Samsung's underlying earnings power is accelerating. If memory pricing stays strong, the current valuation pressure could prove temporary. If pricing momentum fades, higher rates would make any disappointment harder for the stock to absorb.
Not everyone shares Goldman's optimism. BNK Investment & Securities downgraded Samsung to Hold and cut its target price to 270,000 won from 300,000 won. Analyst Lee Min-hee warned that "memory prices are unlikely to rise further and demand elasticity is weakening," according to Seoul Economic Daily. BNK also expects aggressive capacity expansion to make the supply-demand balance less favorable.
The divergence between Goldman's 490,000 won target and BNK's 270,000 won target is far more significant than Thursday morning's modest intraday reversal. Samsung's next major test will come from third-quarter earnings, DRAM and NAND pricing, and evidence on 2027 demand. For context, Seoul's chip rally has been fragile, and foreign outflows persist even as the KOSPI rebounds. Meanwhile, AI infrastructure demand remains a key driver for memory makers.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
