Scottish Mortgage Trust (SMT) shares have risen for three consecutive sessions, reaching their highest level since late June. The stock climbed to 1,470p, marking an 8.46% gain from its 2025 trough. The rally reflects renewed investor confidence in the trust's portfolio, which includes SpaceX, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and other high-growth names now trading at attractive valuations.
SpaceX Rebound and Nasdaq 100 Catalyst
A key driver of SMT's recent performance is the recovery in SpaceX shares. The private space and satellite company, in which Scottish Mortgage holds a significant stake, has rebounded ahead of its upcoming inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 Index. Index inclusion typically triggers passive buying from ETFs that track the benchmark, providing a structural demand boost. SpaceX also recently secured a major deal with Google worth over $912 million per month and a $6 billion contract with Reflection, underscoring its dominant position in satellite broadband and neocloud computing.
However, risks remain. SpaceX's upcoming earnings report could introduce volatility, and the expiration of lock-up agreements may lead to insider selling. For more on SpaceX's valuation dynamics, see SpaceX Stock Drops 2% as Valuation Debate Intensifies Post-IPO.
Bargain Valuations in Top Holdings
Scottish Mortgage's portfolio also benefits from several top holdings trading at discounted multiples relative to their growth trajectories. Nvidia, for instance, has a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22—below the S&P 500's 23—despite being one of the fastest-growing companies on Wall Street. Taiwan Semiconductor, another core holding, trades at a forward P/E of 28, while Amazon and Meta Platforms have forward multiples of 27 and 17, respectively. These valuations suggest that the market may be underpricing their earnings potential.
Meta Platforms, in particular, has been investing heavily in AI infrastructure, a theme that continues to drive demand for chips and cloud services. For context on AI-related supply chain dynamics, see Nvidia Rises 2% as Meta's Custom AI Chip Seen as Complement, Not Threat.
Private Company Stakes Offer Upside
Beyond public equities, Scottish Mortgage holds stakes in high-growth private companies that could unlock significant value upon eventual IPOs. Anthropic, the AI startup, was recently valued at over $900 billion, up from $300 billion just three months earlier. Polymarket traders now estimate its post-IPO valuation could reach $1.7 trillion. Similarly, Stripe, the fintech giant, was valued at $150 billion, with market speculation pointing to a $200 billion valuation after going public.
These private holdings provide SMT with asymmetric upside potential, though they also carry liquidity and valuation uncertainty.
Technical Outlook Points to Further Gains
From a technical perspective, SMT's weekly chart shows a strong uptrend over the past several years. The stock recently formed a morning star candlestick pattern—a bullish reversal signal—and remains above its 50-week and 100-week exponential moving averages. Additionally, a bullish flag pattern has emerged, suggesting the potential for continued upward momentum. Key resistance lies at 1,560p, the June 1 high. A breakout above that level could open the path toward 1,600p.
While the trust's diversified exposure to high-growth tech and private companies offers compelling opportunities, investors should remain mindful of risks tied to valuation, lock-up expirations, and broader market volatility.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
