Nebius Group shares extended their decline on October 14, with the stock touching $185.63, its weakest level since August 11. The retreat has erased nearly 40% from the year-to-date peak and reduced the company's market capitalization to $50.3 billion from an all-time high of $76.3 billion.
The selloff is not isolated to Nebius. CoreWeave, the sector's largest pure-play neocloud operator, has fallen to $65, more than 52% below its record high. IREN slid to $30.9 from a year-to-date peak of $70.65. RIOT Platforms, MARA Holdings, and HIVE Digital have also weakened, while broader AI-linked names including Oracle, Nvidia, AMD, and Dell have pulled back.
Gartner's warning reshapes the AI infrastructure outlook
The catalyst for the latest leg down was a report from Gartner, the research and advisory firm, which cautioned that more than $3.5 trillion of AI infrastructure spending could be exposed to impairment by the end of 2030. Gartner estimates that AI providers have already deployed close to $1 trillion on infrastructure and are projected to spend an additional $6 trillion between 2027 and 2030.
Critically, the report argues that AI-generated revenue will not be sufficient to deliver profitable returns on that outlay, which could force operators to scale back their investment plans. That prospect has direct implications for companies whose business models depend on sustained demand for GPU compute capacity.
Neocloud operators face concentrated exposure
Gartner singled out neocloud providers as among the most vulnerable to impairment. Unlike hyperscalers, these companies lack diversified revenue streams and will need to demonstrate a return on their capital investments. The warning echoes concerns raised repeatedly by investor Michael Burry, who has argued that GPU depreciation schedules should be far shorter than the six-plus years many firms assume, suggesting a useful life of two to three years instead.
Recent financials illustrate the pressure. Nebius reported revenue growth of 454% in its latest quarter, reaching $584 million, but depreciation and amortization totaled $259 million, or 44% of revenue. Peer neocloud operators are reporting similar depreciation burdens.
Technical picture remains weak
On the daily chart, NBIS has fallen from a June high near $300 to the current $186 area. The shares have broken below the $187 Murrey Math Lines pivot support and the September 2 low of $194.27. They also trade beneath the 50-day moving average and the Supertrend indicator.
If the AI bubble concerns persist, the next significant support on the Murrey Math framework sits at $125, roughly 33% below the current price.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
