Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) has experienced a dramatic decline in 2025, with its share price falling approximately 62% from its July 2024 high to trade near its lowest level since September 2020. The software giant has become the worst-performing stock in the Nasdaq 100 Index this year, shedding over $130 billion in market capitalization as it now sits at roughly $83 billion.
What's Behind the Sell-Off?
The broader downturn in software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks, often termed 'SaaSpocalypse,' has weighed heavily on Intuit. Analysts have raised concerns that artificial intelligence tools could disrupt traditional software platforms. However, Intuit's core products—TurboTax, QuickBooks, and Credit Karma—remain deeply entrenched in their respective markets. QuickBooks, for instance, is the dominant accounting software for small businesses, and replacing it would require a massive shift in user behavior.
The most notable weak spot in Intuit's portfolio is Mailchimp, the email marketing platform acquired for $12 billion in 2021. Mailchimp's growth has stalled, dragging down the company's overall performance. Excluding Mailchimp, Intuit's global business revenue grew 17% in the most recent fiscal year.
Financial Performance Remains Solid
Despite the stock's decline, Intuit's underlying business continues to expand. For fiscal 2025, revenue rose 10% year-over-year to $8.6 billion. The Global Business segment (QuickBooks, Mailchimp) grew 15%, while the Consumer segment (TurboTax, Credit Karma) increased 8%. Wall Street analysts project revenue of $21.37 billion for the current fiscal year, representing 13% growth, followed by an 11% increase to $23.8 billion in the next year.
Intuit has also been aggressive in returning capital to shareholders. The company returned over $1.6 billion through share buybacks in the latest quarter and authorized an additional $8 billion repurchase program. With a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12—well below its historical average of 34 and many peers in the software space—the stock appears attractively valued.
Technical Picture and Potential Catalysts
From a technical standpoint, Intuit shares have broken below the key $350 support level, which had held as a floor in February and April 2025. The stock remains below all major moving averages, indicating bearish momentum in the near term. However, the extreme oversold conditions and low valuation could attract dip buyers, potentially leading to a rebound. A long-term recovery could see the stock retest resistance near $500.
Broader market conditions may also play a role. A weaker US Dollar Index could boost risk appetite, while positive developments in trade or geopolitics—such as the recent ceasefire progress that lifted the Dow—might improve sentiment for beaten-down tech names.
Risks to Consider
Investors should weigh the risks of further downside. The SaaSpocalypse narrative could intensify if AI tools begin to erode Intuit's competitive moat. Additionally, Mailchimp's struggles may persist, and any slowdown in the broader economy could pressure small business spending on software. The stock's low valuation reflects these uncertainties.
For those willing to take a contrarian stance, Intuit's combination of a strong product portfolio, double-digit revenue growth, and a historically low P/E ratio presents a potential opportunity—but only for those with a long-term horizon and tolerance for volatility.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
