Ethereum's recent climb to $2,800 has hit a pause, but traders are not abandoning the $3,000 target. The pullback comes after a month-long advance of roughly 8.5%, which saw the cryptocurrency break out of a bullish flag pattern. The $2,800 level was the immediate objective, and its rejection has raised questions about whether the momentum can carry further.
Despite the short-term setback, several factors are keeping the longer-term outlook constructive. Notably, US spot Ethereum ETFs have recorded six consecutive days of net inflows, totaling $834 million. This sustained demand for ETH exposure is often seen as a positive signal, though it does not guarantee future price movements.
On-chain indicators align with past rallies
Two on-chain metrics are drawing attention from analysts. Ethereum's seven-day and 30-day moving averages for trading volume have touched for the first time since November 2025. In previous instances, such crossovers preceded strong rallies, although the crossover has not yet been confirmed.
Additionally, the 365-day market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) ratio has moved above zero. This metric compares Ethereum's market value to the average cost basis of coins acquired over the past year. Historically, four prior moves above this threshold were followed by bullish cycles, some of which pushed ETH to $4,000 or higher. While these historical parallels support a bullish forecast, the sample size is limited, and the signals do not definitively confirm a new cycle.
Technical levels to watch
Ethereum is currently trading near $2,652, holding above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which sit between approximately $2,260 and $2,430. This positioning suggests the broader recovery remains intact, even as some momentum indicators show signs of fatigue.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 58, indicating positive momentum without being overbought. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned marginally negative, but this alone does not signal a reversal while the price remains above key moving averages.
On the downside, the recent pivot area around $2,500 serves as immediate support, followed by the 50-day EMA near $2,425. Further down, the 100-day EMA at $2,265 and the 200-day EMA at $2,259 provide additional support levels. A break below this cluster would weaken the technical outlook and could bring the $2,000 level into focus, with $1,385 identified as a deeper structural support.
On the upside, the $3,000 psychological level remains a significant hurdle. A sustained break above that would confirm a continuation of the medium-term uptrend. Until then, traders will be watching whether ETH can hold $2,500 and regain short-term momentum.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
