Ethereum pushed back above $2,700 on Tuesday, extending a recovery that started when buyers stepped in near a closely watched on-chain valuation level. The rebound followed a rough patch in which ETH fell below $2,400 last week after the Clarity Act stalled in the US Senate and a Federal Reserve rate increase added pressure across risk assets.
The swift bounce suggests dip buyers were willing to absorb the selloff. Even so, the data beneath the surface is not uniformly supportive, and the next resistance test could determine whether the advance has legs.
Dip buyers show up near realized price
Last week's decline brought Ethereum within striking distance of its realized price, a metric that estimates the average on-chain cost basis by tracking the price at which coins last moved. That level sat near $2,310. While ETH did not touch it, the drop below $2,400 put it in view, and buying pressure quickly lifted the token back above $2,700.
Traders often treat realized price as a gauge of where holders may be more inclined to defend positions. Holding above it can support a bullish case, but it does not guarantee further gains. Ethereum now must sustain demand at much higher prices, where traders who bought the dip may opt to lock in profits.
ETF inflows return, exchange deposits climb
US spot Ether ETFs offered one encouraging sign late last week. The funds pulled in $143.8 million in net inflows on Friday, ending a three-day streak of outflows. The positive flow continued Monday, with $147 million entering the products. The reversal indicates demand through regulated vehicles recovered as ETH emerged from its slump.
Exchange flows, however, tell a more cautious story. According to CryptoQuant's ETH Exchange Netflow metric, deposits to crypto exchanges have outpaced withdrawals in recent days. Because investors typically move assets to exchanges when they plan to trade or sell, persistent net deposits can hint at potential selling pressure.
Futures momentum cools after weekend strength
Derivatives activity was supportive over the weekend but turned less favorable on Monday. Ethereum's Taker Buy Sell Ratio, which compares aggressive buying and selling in perpetual futures, had been trending higher. Its seven-day moving average moved into positive territory over the weekend, showing buyers were more active. The latest reading weakened Monday, with bearish activity regaining the upper hand.
That shift alone does not confirm a lasting reversal, but it shows futures traders grew less confident after ETH's rapid rebound. The rally also triggered significant liquidations. CoinGlass reported $181.02 million in ETH liquidations over the past 24 hours, including roughly $143.20 million in short positions. Short liquidations can explain the force behind a move, but they offer less certainty about what happens once that forced buying fades.
Technical outlook: $2,786 is the next hurdle
Ethereum's daily chart still shows a bullish structure. ETH trades above its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages, with the 20-day average near $2,537 underpinning the shorter-term trend. Momentum indicators, though, suggest the advance may be stretched. The Relative Strength Index sits at 67, meaning Ethereum has not yet entered overbought territory. That can accompany a strong uptrend, but it also raises the odds of a pause or pullback as ETH approaches resistance.
The first level to watch on the upside is $2,786, which has capped the latest advance. A sustained break above it could bring $2,894 into focus, with $3,177 cited as the next resistance beyond that.
Traders will be watching whether ETH can hold a break above resistance given the mixed signals from exchange flows and futures activity. If the rally stalls, initial support sits near $2,626. Below that, the $2,544 horizontal level and the 20-day EMA around $2,537 form a closely grouped support area. A deeper pullback could put $2,431 in focus, followed by the 50-day EMA near $2,356. The 100- and 200-day averages and the prior support band near $2,172 would become relevant if selling intensifies.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
