Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $1,660 after a 7.2% weekly decline, putting the $1,611 support zone squarely in focus as sellers maintain control. The cryptocurrency has lost over 20% in the past 30 days, erasing most of its mid-June recovery and raising questions about whether bulls can defend the key level.
Bearish Signals Mount
The recent selloff has been accompanied by several pressure points. On Tuesday, a sharp move lower wiped out gains from the previous 12 days and triggered approximately $170 million in liquidations of bullish leveraged ETH positions, according to Coinglass data. Perpetual futures funding rates briefly turned deeply negative, indicating that short sellers were paying to maintain positions as bullish demand waned.
Institutional demand has also weakened considerably. US-listed spot Ether ETFs have posted net outflows for six consecutive weeks, with $910 million exiting these products since mid-May. Total net assets have fallen to $9.4 billion, a clear sign that institutional appetite has diminished. This trend mirrors broader market caution, as seen in Bitcoin nearing $60K support amid similar ETF outflows and geopolitical tensions.
Network Activity and Fundamentals Under Pressure
Ethereum's internal restructuring has added to the uncertainty. The Ethereum Foundation confirmed on June 23 that it completed a multi-month reorganization, cutting approximately 20% of its workforce—54 employees across protocol and community teams. Co-founder Vitalik Buterin stated the organization aims to reduce annual spending by 40% this year and maintain a 5% annual budget drawdown after 2030. The layoffs unsettled traders, coming at a time when network activity was already weakening.
Total value locked (TVL) across decentralized applications has dropped 23% in three months, according to DeFiLlama data, reducing one of the main arguments for ETH exposure. While Ethereum still leads decentralized finance with about $38 billion in TVL—a 53% market share—and its ecosystem accounts for 43% of decentralized exchange volumes, the network has generated only $11 million in fees over the past 30 days, drawing criticism from analysts.
Corporate exposure has also become a concern. BitMine, chaired by Tom Lee, reportedly holds $9.7 billion in unrealized losses on its ETH reserves, even as the company continues to add to its position. While no forced selling has been observed, the size of the paper loss could reduce institutional appetite while ETH remains under pressure. For more on this, see BitMine Stock Plunges 53% as Ethereum Bet Backfires.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
On the daily chart, ETH is trading below all major moving averages: the 20-day EMA near $1,745, the 50-day EMA near $1,893, the 100-day EMA near $2,057, and the 200-day EMA near $2,333. The daily RSI is near 37, below the neutral 50 level, indicating that momentum remains bearish despite a slight recovery from oversold conditions in early June.
On the 4-hour chart, the short-term structure is also bearish. The EMA 9 is below EMA 21, the MACD is below its signal line, the RSI is near 36.6, and price is trading below VWAP. These readings confirm that sellers control the near-term trend, even though the latest decline has not yet broken the June support floor.
The first support sits around $1,650, where buyers have attempted to slow the decline. A clean break below that level would put the $1,611 horizontal support in focus. If this floor fails, ETH could enter another liquidation-driven decline as long positions exit and short sellers press the breakdown. For buyers, the first meaningful resistance is between $1,680 and $1,715, where the 4-hour moving averages and VWAP are clustered. A stronger recovery would require reclaiming the 20-day EMA near $1,745.
Broader Market Context
The US-Iran conflict has kept oil prices and inflation concerns in focus, while Federal Reserve officials have delayed expected rate cuts, with some policymakers discussing the possibility of higher rates. In this environment, investors have stronger incentives to hold safer yield-bearing assets instead of crypto. This macro backdrop has contributed to the broader selloff in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
As Ethereum approaches the $1,611 support, the coming days will be critical. A successful defense could provide a base for a recovery, while a breakdown would likely accelerate selling pressure. Traders should monitor ETF flows, network activity, and broader market sentiment for further clues.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
