Ethereum's price dipped slightly below the $2,500 mark on Thursday, as modest buying in the spot market helped offset tepid demand in derivatives. While the broader technical picture remains constructive, declining futures participation and recent outflows from US spot Ethereum ETFs suggest that traders are not fully convinced the rally can be sustained.
Futures market shows limited leverage and weak conviction
Significant leverage has yet to return to Ethereum's derivatives market following the short squeeze that drove ETH toward $2,500 in late August. Open interest, which measures the total value of outstanding derivatives contracts, has fallen by roughly 1 million ETH since the cryptocurrency began its recovery in July. In dollar terms, however, open interest has climbed 54% to $33.7 billion over the same period.
ETH's price rose by a stronger 58% during that time, indicating that much of the increase in open interest's dollar value came from price appreciation rather than fresh capital entering the futures market. This divergence—price outpacing open interest—points to limited conviction among leveraged traders and could leave the rally dependent on continued spot demand.
Ethereum's Net Taker Volume has produced several negative readings in recent days, highlighting an ongoing tug-of-war between buyers and sellers in the perpetual futures market. This metric calculates the difference between market-order buying and selling volume. Negative readings indicate that aggressive sellers have gained the upper hand, while positive figures reflect stronger taker-buying activity. The inconsistent readings reinforce the view that derivatives traders remain hesitant to establish heavily leveraged bullish positions.
Spot market shows slight buying bias, but ETF outflows persist
Conditions appear slightly more favorable in Ethereum's spot market. Exchange netflow data shows withdrawals have exceeded deposits over the past week, although only by a modest margin. Net withdrawals are generally considered constructive because they reduce the amount of ETH immediately available for sale on centralized exchanges. The latest figures suggest buyers retain a slight advantage, but accumulation has not yet reached levels that would signal overwhelming demand.
Meanwhile, US spot Ethereum ETFs started the week weakly, recording $24.3 million in net outflows on Tuesday. This follows a period of mixed flows, and the persistent outflows may be weighing on sentiment. For context, similar dynamics have been observed in other crypto assets, as seen in zcash's recent surge, where ETF demand played a key role.
Price consolidates between $2,431 and $2,544
Ethereum has remained inside a narrow trading range between support at $2,431 and resistance at $2,544. According to Coinglass, ETH recorded $52.6 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $44.3 million of that total. This suggests the recent price action placed slightly more pressure on bullish traders.
Despite the muted derivatives activity, Ethereum's daily chart retains a constructive near-term outlook. ETH continues to trade above its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages. The 20-day EMA near $2,403 provides immediate dynamic support, while the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic Oscillator both sit in the low 60s. These readings indicate sustained buying momentum without signaling extremely overbought conditions.
Key levels to watch
- Support: $2,431 (first), then the 20-day EMA at $2,403. If sellers push below these, the 200-day EMA at $2,254 could become the next important floor, with deeper support at $2,172 and $2,111.
- Resistance: $2,544 (immediate), followed by $2,626 and $2,786. A decisive break above this zone could confirm a continuation of Ethereum's broader recovery.
Until then, ETH may remain confined to its current consolidation range as traders wait for stronger demand. The recent BitMine's latest ETH buy added some pressure as Ethereum tested the $2,520 resistance, but the market has yet to see a clear breakout.
For investors, the key question is whether the current pullback is a healthy consolidation that sets up the next leg higher, or a sign that the rally is losing steam. The data suggests a mixed picture: spot accumulation is mildly positive, but derivatives and ETF flows remain cautious. As always, market conditions can change quickly, and traders should monitor these indicators closely.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
