Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading below $0.085 on Thursday, edging up less than 1% despite a generally risk-off mood across cryptocurrency markets. The modest recovery follows a pause in profit-taking by large holders, which has temporarily eased selling pressure. However, retail investors remain cautious, with participation in futures markets continuing to decline.
Whale Activity Offers Temporary Relief
On-chain data from Santiment indicates that major DOGE holders have slowed their recent distribution. Wallets holding more than 1 billion DOGE, often linked to exchanges, now control 47.14% of the total supply, up from 45.73% on April 25. Meanwhile, wallets holding between 10 million and 1 billion DOGE—typically considered influential whale investors—control 35.01% of supply, compared with 36.37% earlier in the period.
Despite the slowdown in whale selling, broader investor sentiment remains under pressure. The percentage of DOGE supply currently in profit has fallen sharply to 37.85%, down from 58.01% on May 14. This decline suggests a growing share of investors are holding positions at a loss, which often weighs on market confidence and limits buying appetite.
Retail Participation Remains Subdued
According to CoinGlass data, Dogecoin futures open interest (OI) has stagnated around $1 billion, its lowest level since March 24. The decline indicates that traders continue to withdraw capital from leveraged positions, reflecting reduced speculative activity and lower confidence in a near-term recovery. For context, similar patterns of declining OI have been observed in other assets, such as Bitcoin Dips Below $63K as Iran Tensions and $120K BTC ETF Outflows Pressure Price.
Dogecoin Price Forecast: Key Support Holds
The DOGE/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish as Dogecoin has stabilized above the critical $0.0800 support area after a 14% decline last week. The recent consolidation suggests dip buyers have emerged around this zone, preventing a deeper selloff for now.
While bearish pressure persists, some momentum indicators suggest selling intensity may be easing. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered to around 50 and is approaching the bullish region. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero, but its improving profile points to a moderation in downside momentum rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
If the sell-off resumes, buyers will need to defend the $0.080 support level to stand a chance of bouncing back easily. Failure to defend this support could expose Dogecoin to lower demand zones around $0.0776. A decisive break below this support could trigger another leg lower and push DOGE into unexplored downside territory. However, if the market recovery persists, buyers will need to overcome the former support-turned-resistance level at $0.0897 to recapture the 50-day EMA at $0.0973. For a more meaningful bullish reversal, Dogecoin would need to reclaim the $0.1000 level and establish support above it.
Outlook Remains Fragile
Dogecoin’s latest rebound has been aided by a pause in whale selling and signs of dip buying around the $0.0800 support zone. However, declining investor profitability, shrinking futures participation, and a bearish technical structure suggest that the recovery remains fragile. Unless DOGE can break above key resistance levels and attract renewed retail and institutional demand, the current move is likely to be viewed as a short-term relief rally rather than the start of a sustained uptrend. For further analysis of similar patterns, see Dogecoin Flirts with Yearly Low: Could a Drop Below $0.069 Trigger Further Losses?.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
