Cardano (ADA) continues to trade near multi-year lows following a sharp sell-off over the past month, with the token losing 38.6% of its value. At press time, ADA was priced at $0.1445, down 1.3% in the last 24 hours and 10.8% over the past week. The cryptocurrency remains more than 95% below its all-time high of $3.09, recorded in September 2021.
The latest leg of the decline was triggered by the SecondFi wallet exploit, which resulted in the theft of approximately 16 million ADA, valued at roughly $2.4 million at the time of the attack. However, the exploit targeted wallet software, not the Cardano blockchain itself, limiting the direct impact on the network's fundamentals.
SecondFi Exploit: Root Cause and Recovery Plan
Following a forensic investigation, SecondFi identified the root cause as a deterministic nonce derivation flaw within its wallet signing implementation. This vulnerability allowed attackers to reconstruct private keys using publicly available blockchain data, compromising 374 wallet addresses in three automated waves. The total footprint of vulnerable accounts reached 3,072 addresses.
SecondFi executed a rapid emergency containment sweep during a fourth wave, successfully rescuing and isolating roughly 129 million ADA in a secure third-party custodian vault. The company has since outlined a recovery roadmap: a final balance snapshot was completed on June 26, followed by a week to build the recovery mechanism and another week of security testing. If tests are successful, reimbursements to affected users are expected to begin approximately two weeks after the snapshot.
SecondFi advised affected customers to avoid signing transactions from compromised addresses and to create entirely new wallets with fresh recovery phrases while awaiting official instructions. The incident underscores the importance of robust wallet security, as similar exploits have affected other crypto projects, such as the BONK treasury exploit that led to an 8% slide.
Technical Indicators Suggest Selling Pressure May Be Exhausted
While the broader trend remains bearish, momentum indicators are beginning to show signs of stabilization. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 30.26, just above oversold territory, while the weekly RSI is deep in oversold territory at 28.14. These readings suggest that selling pressure has become stretched, though they do not confirm a trend reversal.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has begun turning positive, indicating that bearish momentum is fading. However, ADA remains below its 10-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), confirming the short-term bearish bias.
Derivatives positioning reflects cautious sentiment, with the long-to-short ratio at approximately 0.72 and funding rates slightly negative, indicating that short positions still dominate. However, on-chain data shows increased activity from larger investors, with sizeable spot-market purchases suggesting that some whales have been accumulating ADA during the decline. This pattern mirrors recent whale activity seen in Cardano's 5% plunge earlier this month.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
ADA is approaching an important technical zone. Immediate support sits at $0.1387, close to the recent 24-hour low of $0.1418. A decisive move below that level could expose the token to further downside. On the upside, the first major resistance stands at $0.1739. A daily close above that level would strengthen the case for a broader recovery and shift attention toward the next resistance at $0.1895.
These levels align with the recent trading range, where ADA has fluctuated between $0.1397 and $0.1627 over the past week. The token's ability to hold above $0.1387 will be critical in determining whether the current consolidation leads to a rebound or further losses.
While the SecondFi exploit has added uncertainty, the fact that the Cardano blockchain itself remains unaffected provides a foundation for potential recovery. However, the broader crypto market remains volatile, and ADA's path forward will depend on both technical factors and broader market sentiment. For context, Cardano recently rose 17.5% in two weeks after founder Charles Hoskinson quashed exit rumors, highlighting the token's sensitivity to news flow.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
