Bitcoin is hovering near $75,500, down 1.3% over the past 24 hours, as traders brace for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later today. The cryptocurrency has already slipped from its September 15 peak above $79,000, and the $75,000 level is now back in focus. A decisive break below that psychological mark could expose the $73,000-$73,500 support zone, according to technical analysis.
The recent decline has been driven by a combination of factors: the US Senate's failure to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, rising Treasury yields, and a wave of leveraged liquidations. The Senate's procedural vote on September 15 fell short of the 60 votes needed, with a 50-49 tally, effectively stalling the bill that aimed to establish a federal regulatory framework for digital assets. Bitcoin reacted by dropping to an intraday low of $74,913, as reported by FactSet data cited by MarketWatch.
Meanwhile, the bond market has been exerting pressure. The 10-year US Treasury yield touched 5.04% on September 15, its highest level since July 2007, before easing to around 4.97% by Wednesday. The surge in yields, driven by higher oil prices and expectations of Fed tightening, has made risk assets like Bitcoin less attractive. This backdrop is similar to the environment that led to the Dow's recent drop as yields topped 5%.
Leveraged positions have been caught in the crossfire. Over the past 24 hours, total crypto liquidations exceeded $500 million, with long positions bearing the brunt of the losses. The Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap shows a dense cluster of leverage near $74,500-$74,700, just below the current price, while a larger concentration sits around $76,700-$77,000. This leaves Bitcoin sandwiched between two significant pools of leveraged positions, which could amplify volatility in either direction.
US spot Bitcoin ETF flows have offered little support during the decline. Estimates indicate net outflows on September 15, following roughly $160 million of inflows the previous session, with Fidelity's FBTC among the largest sources of withdrawals. This suggests institutional investors are also adopting a cautious stance ahead of the Fed's decision.
The Fed is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points, which would take the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%. However, the market's focus will be on Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference and the updated Summary of Economic Projections, including the dot plot, for clues on future rate moves. A hawkish tone could further pressure Bitcoin, while a dovish surprise might trigger a rebound. As noted in our gold analysis, Warsh's tone is key for all risk assets.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's daily chart shows the price below its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $76,832, with the 50-day EMA at $73,537, the 100-day EMA at $71,347, and the 200-day EMA at $73,082. The cluster between $71,300 and $73,500 provides multiple support levels if $75,000 fails. On the upside, a daily close above the 20-day EMA could open a path toward $78,000, with the $80,000-$81,000 zone as the next major resistance.
The Aroon indicator is firmly bearish, with Aroon Down at 92.86% and Aroon Up at 7.14%, indicating that recent lows are occurring much more recently than highs. On the 4-hour chart, the MACD remains below zero, with the MACD line at -501 versus a signal line of -337, suggesting no bullish crossover has yet emerged.
As the Fed announcement approaches, Bitcoin sits just above $75,000, below its daily 20-day EMA, and with bearish momentum on shorter timeframes. A break through $74,500 could trigger a slide toward the $73,000-$73,500 EMA cluster, while a recovery above $75,800-$76,000 might bring the $76,700-$77,000 liquidation zone into play. The outcome of the Fed decision and Warsh's commentary will likely determine which path BTC takes. For broader market context, see our coverage of Nasdaq's climb ahead of the Fed and XRP's drop after the CLARITY Act rejection.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
