Bitcoin extended its recovery on Monday, trading above $81,300 after a weekly gain of more than 5%. The move has pushed the cryptocurrency back above the True Market Mean, an on-chain metric that tracks the average acquisition price of active market participants. According to Glassnode, reclaiming this level—currently estimated at $76,660—signals a return to a bullish market regime, as recent buyers are now collectively holding unrealized profits.
Ethereum and XRP also posted strong gains, with Ethereum up over 6% to trade above $2,600 and XRP holding above $1.40 after a weekly advance of more than 5%. Momentum indicators across the three major cryptocurrencies point to an early bullish shift, suggesting buyers may attempt to push prices higher in the near term.
Corporate and ETF cost bases create new tests
Glassnode's latest report highlights that Bitcoin's next potential obstacles are the average purchase prices of corporate treasury holders and US spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors. The corporate treasury cost basis is estimated at approximately $80,421, a level Bitcoin has already reclaimed, potentially returning the average corporate buyer to profit. However, the cost basis for US spot Bitcoin ETF investors sits higher at around $85,638.
These metrics represent the average prices paid by two influential categories of Bitcoin holders. As BTC approaches their acquisition levels, investors who previously accumulated at higher prices could choose to sell near break-even, creating additional resistance. The $85,000 area is therefore seen as a crucial level for Bitcoin's next leg higher.
Short liquidation cluster could fuel a squeeze
Bitcoin is approaching a dense cluster of potential short liquidations between $83,000 and $86,000, according to Glassnode. This region has already emerged as a major resistance zone, with roughly 1.07 million BTC previously acquired within that range, a substantial portion held by long-term holders. This concentration of supply could increase selling pressure as Bitcoin enters the zone.
However, the accumulation of leveraged short positions over several weeks creates the possibility of a short squeeze. If BTC rises far enough to trigger liquidations, short sellers could be forced to buy Bitcoin to close their positions, providing additional demand that could help the price move rapidly through the resistance area. Glassnode notes that this could lead to accelerated volatility if Bitcoin reaches the liquidation cluster.
Leverage data suggests room for further upside
Glassnode's leverage data indicates that the wider cryptocurrency market may still have room to extend its recovery. The analytics firm monitors the proportion of total open interest attributable to altcoins relative to Bitcoin. When the two figures move within a few percentage points of each other, speculative activity is often considered excessive, and the market may be overheating. According to Glassnode, altcoin open interest has not yet reached that risk threshold, suggesting leveraged speculation remains contained enough to support another potential move higher.
Technical outlook: $85K resistance in focus
Bitcoin is trading comfortably above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are clustered between roughly $72,000 and $75,000. The 50-day EMA remains above both the 100-day and 200-day averages, a structure that suggests the broader uptrend remains intact despite recent consolidation. The next major resistance level sits near $85,000; a decisive break above that barrier could clear the way for Bitcoin to challenge new highs.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at approximately 64 on Monday, placing BTC firmly within bullish territory but below the overbought threshold of 70. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has also turned positive again, signaling that upside momentum is rebuilding. Together, these indicators reinforce Bitcoin's near-term bullish outlook, though failure to overcome $85,000 could encourage profit-taking and another period of consolidation.
On the downside, the 50-day EMA near $74,807 represents the first major dynamic support level. Below that, the 200-day EMA at approximately $73,458 and the 100-day EMA near $72,240 create a wider demand zone. A drop through this cluster would weaken the near-term outlook, with horizontal support at $66,500 and $62,300 providing additional downside protection. Bitcoin would need to fall below those levels to seriously challenge the prevailing bullish market structure.
Investors are also watching broader market conditions, including ETF inflows and liquidity trends, as well as key levels in other cryptocurrencies. The upcoming Fed decision and its tone could also influence risk assets, including Bitcoin.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
