Bitcoin is trading near $77,600 on Monday, up 0.5% over the past 24 hours, but the cryptocurrency continues to struggle below the $78,000 mark after multiple failed attempts to reclaim the $80,000 level. The asset briefly touched $77,750 during a rebound before giving back some gains, with its seven-day performance still negative at 2.9%.
The persistent rejection at $80,000 follows a rally earlier in September that pushed BTC to the $82,000 area, only for sellers to step in and drive prices lower. QCP Capital has identified $80,000 to $82,000 as a key resistance zone, with support sitting around $77,000 to $78,000.
Fed uncertainty keeps Bitcoin capped
Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting have shifted following stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data for August. Payrolls rose by 162,000, well above the consensus estimate of roughly 55,000, raising the possibility that the central bank could hike interest rates again. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar moved higher after the report, while Bitcoin remained pinned below the $80,000 resistance.
CoinShares research has tied recent digital asset fund flows to changing U.S. rate expectations, with monetary policy uncertainty cited as a key factor limiting Bitcoin around $80,000 ahead of the Fed decision. Institutional demand via U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has also weakened, with net outflows of $46.6 million on September 8, $120.2 million on September 9, and $282.7 million on September 10. Flows turned positive on September 11, but only $6 million came in, a fraction of the buying seen during Bitcoin's earlier push toward $82,000.
Rangebound trading persists
Selling pressure near $80,000 has kept BTC within a relatively narrow band since its early-September rejection. Buyers have consistently stepped in around $76,000 to $77,000, while attempts to break higher have failed to gain traction. Bitfinex analysts have placed Bitcoin's active-investor cost basis near $76,350, a level that could absorb selling pressure. BTC briefly approached that region in the past 24 hours before recovering above $77,500.
Derivatives data shows no clear breakout signal. Bitcoin open interest stands near $50.9 billion, with funding rates mildly positive and taker activity leaning toward sellers. Elevated open interest indicates leverage remains in the market, even as spot ETF demand has cooled. A move above $78,000 would still face the $80,000-$82,000 supply zone that has rejected previous advances.
Technical analysis: key levels to watch
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is trading near $77,500 after a sharp August breakout from the $63,000-$65,000 area. Price reached $81,000-$82,000 following that move but has since formed lower highs while holding above $76,000. BTC remains well above its three major daily moving averages: the 50-day SMA at $71,402, the 200-day SMA at $70,189, and the 100-day SMA at $67,332. The 50-day average has crossed above the 200-day, but both sit more than 8% below the current price.
A break below $76,350 would open a significant gap before the first major moving-average support around $71,400. The $70,000-$71,400 region would become the next focus if sellers push BTC through the current range floor. Buying pressure has weakened even with price above those averages; the daily Chaikin Oscillator has dropped to around -1.11K after surging above 4K during the August breakout, indicating net distribution in recent sessions.
On the 4-hour chart, BTC has spent most of September between roughly $76,000 and $80,000 following its rejection from $82,000. The Directional Movement Index shows +DI at 19.69 and -DI at 15.19, giving buyers a slight edge, but ADX at 19.54 remains below the 20-25 threshold typically associated with a strong trend. The Money Flow Index stands at 51.65, recovering from below 30 but still far from overbought levels seen during previous pushes toward $80,000.
A 4-hour close above $80,000, accompanied by rising DMI strength and an MFI move toward 60-70, would put $82,000 back in play. Conversely, failure to clear $78,000 keeps $76,350 as the immediate downside target, with $75,000 as the next support if that level breaks.
As the Fed decision approaches, Bitcoin's path hinges on whether buyers can overcome the $80,000 resistance or whether sellers will force a retest of lower support levels. Related coverage: Fed's rate decision test and Ethereum's resistance ahead of CPI.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
