Bitcoin edged higher on Wednesday, trading above $83,400 during Asian hours, as investors weighed the sustainability of the third-quarter rally against a marked cooling in speculative futures activity and increased profit-taking. The cryptocurrency remains below its eight-month high of around $87,400 reached earlier this month.
The broader cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at roughly $2.95 trillion, up 0.3% over the past 24 hours, according to data from CoinGecko.
Futures demand growth plunges 90%
Data from CryptoQuant shows that growth in speculative futures demand fell from approximately 164,000 BTC on September 14 to just 16,000 BTC on September 29—a 90% decline in just 15 days. Meanwhile, recent Bitcoin buyers are sitting on average unrealized gains of 33%, the highest level since December 2024, which has already prompted some investors to lock in profits.
On September 22, Bitcoin holders realized profits on roughly 25,700 BTC, the largest single-day total of the year. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, noted in a report that "without fresh demand, rallies struggle to extend," adding that "with spot demand still in contraction and futures growth stalling, near-term upside becomes harder to sustain."
The combination suggests that Bitcoin's recent advance may become increasingly dependent on fresh spot demand rather than leverage-driven futures activity.
Resilience amid macro headwinds
The cooling in derivatives demand comes against a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. US Treasury yields have continued to rise, oil prices remain above $100 a barrel amid the US-Iran impasse, and markets are pricing in the possibility of further interest-rate increases. Yet Bitcoin has so far remained relatively resilient.
Thahbib Rahman, research analyst at Block Scholes, told Invezz that "despite the macro hurdles (and sector-specific headwinds such as the US Senate's recent failure to advance the Clarity Act), Bitcoin (BTC) has remained incredibly resilient." He noted that Bitcoin has traded within a tight range of roughly $82,000 to $84,000 over the past week and a half, even as institutional demand has continued to provide support.
Rahman added that "spot BTC ETFs have now recorded eight consecutive sessions of inflows, totalling around $3 billion." This resilience is notable given the sharp slowdown in speculative futures growth, suggesting that institutional spot demand may be helping offset some of the leverage that previously supported Bitcoin's momentum.
ETF inflows remain supportive
Institutional demand has provided an important counterweight to the cooling derivatives market. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $2.4 billion in net inflows during the week ended September 25. The buying continued into the latest week, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs recording more than $66 million of inflows on September 29, extending their streak to nine consecutive sessions.
Sonali Gupta, research lead at AMINA Bank, said that "the balance of evidence points to a recovery that is increasingly supported by institutional demand, but confirmation depends on persistence rather than the size of the initial move." Gupta highlighted that Bitcoin's ability to remain above the $83,000-$86,000 range while ETF inflows remain positive is an important signal for the market. "That combination would provide stronger evidence that the September rally is developing into a broader recovery," she added, while cautioning that "a reversal in ETF flows alongside a sustained move below this range would weaken the case."
Gupta also pointed to the growing importance of the broader macro environment, particularly elevated long-term government bond yields and continued demand for gold from Chinese central banks.
PCE inflation in focus
Traders are also awaiting the latest US inflation reading later Wednesday for clues about the Federal Reserve's next interest-rate decision. A stronger-than-expected reading could increase expectations for higher interest rates, supporting the dollar and potentially weighing on risk-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin. Conversely, softer inflation could reduce expectations for further monetary tightening and provide a more favorable backdrop for cryptocurrencies.
That macro backdrop comes as Bitcoin heads toward one of its strongest quarters in recent years. Bitcoin is up more than 43% in the third quarter, putting it on course for its strongest quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2024. It would also rank among Bitcoin's strongest quarterly gains since US spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in January 2024.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
