Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded to around $77,400, up 1.3% in the last 24 hours, as selling pressure eased following the Federal Reserve's latest rate decision. The recovery comes despite significant outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which totaled $746 million over two sessions.
According to CoinGecko, BTC was trading near $77,383, close to its 24-hour high of $77,420. Over the past week, the cryptocurrency has gained roughly 0.6%, and over the past month, it has surged about 20%.
The rebound began after Bitcoin successfully defended the $75,000-$76,000 support zone. The Fed's decision to raise rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% was widely anticipated, and the removal of uncertainty helped stabilize markets. Lower Treasury yields and reduced leverage have also supported the recovery.
US stocks rebounded after Wednesday's selloff, led by technology shares, while oil prices eased as Middle East supply concerns faded. The 10-year Treasury yield, which had climbed above 5%, slipped back below that level. Leverage in the crypto market has cooled, with Bybit Bitcoin open interest down 0.63% to $2.12 billion, reducing the risk of cascading long liquidations.
Sentiment has improved, with the Fear and Greed index rising from 50 to 56. However, the next resistance zone is close: Binance's liquidation heatmap shows a dense cluster of liquidity between $77,500 and $77,700, followed by more positions around $78,000. A break above these levels could force short sellers to cover, adding buying pressure.
On the downside, a large liquidation concentration sits between $75,300 and $75,700. BTC would need to lose the $76,000 region to bring that cluster back into focus.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $295.98 million on Sept. 16, following $450.33 million the previous day, totaling $746.31 million. Despite these redemptions, BTC's recovery suggests that improved risk sentiment, easing leverage, and defense of key support are the primary drivers.
Technical analysis
Bitcoin's daily chart shows price back above its 9-day simple moving average (SMA) at $76,837. Holding above this level keeps the $77,500-$77,700 area as the first resistance. A daily close above that range could expose $78,000, followed by the recent price area around $80,000. Early September highs near $81,000-$82,000 would become the next target if BTC establishes itself above $80,000.
However, buying pressure has not fully recovered. The daily Chaikin Oscillator remains below zero at around -880, indicating weak accumulation momentum. A move back toward zero alongside a break above $78,000 would give the rebound stronger confirmation. If the oscillator stays negative and BTC falls below the 9-day SMA, $76,000 becomes the next support, with a break potentially leading to the $75,300-$75,700 liquidation cluster.
On the 4-hour chart, the Directional Movement Index shows ADX at 23.71, with +DI at 17.65 and -DI at 15.84. The narrow gap and ADX below 25 indicate a lack of strong directional trend. A widening gap with ADX above 25 would support a push toward $78,000. Conversely, a -DI crossover above +DI and a loss of $76,800 could expose $76,000 and then $75,300-$75,700.
Volatility, measured by 4-hour standard deviation, has contracted to around $567 from nearly $1,000 during the recent decline. A rise in volatility accompanying a break above $77,700 could open the path to $78,000 and $80,000. If volatility expands while BTC falls below $76,800, downside levels remain $76,000 and the large liquidation cluster around $75,300-$75,700.
For broader market context, Wall Street's rebound and gold's resilience suggest risk appetite is improving. Meanwhile, Dow futures jumped as the Fed hike cleared, and KOSPI rebounded on chip gains.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
