XRP's technical posture has weakened significantly after the token closed below a critical support zone, raising the prospect of a deeper decline toward $1.25. The cryptocurrency, which traded around $1.40 on Monday after falling from a late-September high near $1.66, briefly touched $1.32 last week. While a rebound has so far prevented a confirmed breakdown, the price action remains fragile.
Support Zone Under Pressure
The immediate danger lies in the $1.35-$1.38 area, which now serves as a confluence of several technical levels. A decisive daily close below this range would likely expose $1.30 again and make the bearish $1.25 scenario increasingly difficult to dismiss. According to FXStreet analyst John Isige, XRP's short-term path remains tilted lower unless buyers can secure a convincing close above $1.40. The 50-day exponential moving average sits around $1.40, the 200-day EMA near $1.38, and the 100-day EMA around $1.34, clustering resistance and support in a narrow band.
Momentum indicators are also bearish. Investing.com's late-Monday technical reading classified XRP as a Strong Sell, with the Relative Strength Index in bearish territory and most major moving averages generating sell signals. This means losing $1.35 would not represent a single failed support level but could remove several technical cushions at almost the same time.
Crowded Longs Amplify Risk
Positioning data adds to the downside risk. XRP's long-to-short ratio stood near 2.32 on Monday, according to Bitrue Research Institute data cited by Yahoo Finance, meaning bullish leveraged positions outnumber shorts by more than two to one. While crowded longs are not automatically bearish, they can amplify a decline if support fails and stop-losses or liquidations are triggered.
There is a bullish counterweight: whale exchange activity remains subdued, suggesting large holders are not rushing to sell. That could help XRP stabilise if buyers continue defending the current zone.
Downside Scenarios
The $1.25 level is still a downside scenario rather than a confirmed target. Technical analyst Egrag Crypto sees XRP consolidating broadly between $1.30 and $1.45, but identifies $1.25 as a potential breakdown level. CryptoFrontNews reported that losing it could expose the $1.18-$1.20 region.
Institutional demand remains resilient despite the price weakness. US spot XRP ETFs attracted $11.31 million in net inflows last week, although Bitwise accounted for $10.55 million of that total. This suggests some investors are using the dip to accumulate exposure.
XRP has now slipped below the $1.35-$1.38 support zone on a daily closing basis, putting the technical picture under greater pressure. Unless bulls quickly reclaim that area, $1.30 becomes the next key support to watch. A deeper break could then bring $1.25 into focus as the chart's next major downside test.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
